May 2021 Discussion Thread

[Myfrotho704_]

True the heat presented on the Gfs tho is pretty basic stuff .. don’t even see 90s past this heat wave we have coming up .. should mean more opportunities for rain cooling us down

Nope the airmass that’ll start coming in is the the high 80s dews in the upper 60s/low 70s swamp ass air

 

[LickWx]

Was summer 2010 dry your way? CLT metro was hot that summer, but we had fairly consistent thunderstorm activity and precip was around average. Also from what I’ve read NOAA now does think the NIÑA is breaking down and we are likely headed to neutral ENSO through at least next winter...that should help keep most of the SE out of any severe long term drought. If we were going into a 2nd year NIÑA, it could get ugly.

[/QUOTE]
At RDU it was , I would have to check maps of the region as a whole since summer storms are boom or bust. For instance last July I was very very wet here but RDU was drier.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Well that sucks huge cape but weak trigger on the UK

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Nope the airmass that’ll start coming in is the the high 80s dews in the upper 60s/low 70s swamp ass air

Helps with storms and keeping 90s away .. will feel moist tho

 

[LickWx]

Helps with storms and keeping 90s away .. will feel moist tho

The 90s won’t be gone for long , our average high will hit 90 in late June and stay there into the first and start of second week of august . So we will crawl from mostly 86-88 to 90 day after day.

 

[SD]

Well that sucks huge cape but weak trigger on the UK View attachment 84147View attachment 84148View attachment 84149View attachment 84150

Just need 1 in that type of environment it should start popping babies on its outflow

 

[LickWx]

Just need 1 in that type of environment it should start popping babies on its outflow

Eastern wake batholith hotspot .

 

[SD]

Eastern wake batholith hotspot .

Given the likely N to S movement that would work

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro misses a phase out west and turns into this interesting

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Would you look at that

 

[ryan1234]

Would you look at that View attachment 84155View attachment 84156

Please, OH PLEASE let this come to fruition!

 

[SD]

Would you look at that View attachment 84155View attachment 84156

??

 

[NoSnowATL]

Would you look at that View attachment 84155View attachment 84156

That model makes the smallest thunderstorm look like a supercell EF9 type storm.

 

[SD]

That model makes the smallest thunderstorm look like a supercell EF9 type storm.

Boo....boo this man

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EPS has lots of cape after day 7

 

[cd2play]

??

?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Euro looked like it had a little gulf tropical storm lurking in the next 24-48 hours ... confirmation or is this just noise?

 

[Chazwin]

Euro looked like it had a little gulf tropical storm lurking in the next 24-48 hours ... confirmation or is this just noise?

Honestly as I’ve looked at satellite and radar today, it looks some convection is trying to organize though to the NW of the Yucatán peninsula. Oddly enough, I think about week or so ago, the GFS was hinting at something forming in the Gulf around this timeframe.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Solid

 

[Chazwin]

Solid View attachment 84166View attachment 84167View attachment 84168

Looks like storms firing up on the ridge tops and then outflow boundaries moving SE