Nope the airmass that’ll start coming in is the the high 80s dews in the upper 60s/low 70s swamp ass air
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May 2021 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter SD
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LickWx
Member
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At RDU it was , I would have to check maps of the region as a whole since summer storms are boom or bust. For instance last July I was very very wet here but RDU was drier.
Well that sucks huge cape but weak trigger on the UK 
Helps with storms and keeping 90s away .. will feel moist tho
LickWx
Member
The 90s won’t be gone for long , our average high will hit 90 in late June and stay there into the first and start of second week of august . So we will crawl from mostly 86-88 to 90 day after day.
Just need 1 in that type of environment it should start popping babies on its outflow
LickWx
Member
Given the likely N to S movement that would work
Euro misses a phase out west and turns into this interesting 
Would you look at that 
Please, OH PLEASE let this come to fruition!
NoSnowATL
Member
That model makes the smallest thunderstorm look like a supercell EF9 type storm.
Boo....boo this man
EPS has lots of cape after day 7
cd2play
Member
Euro looked like it had a little gulf tropical storm lurking in the next 24-48 hours ... confirmation or is this just noise?
Honestly as I’ve looked at satellite and radar today, it looks some convection is trying to organize though to the NW of the Yucatán peninsula. Oddly enough, I think about week or so ago, the GFS was hinting at something forming in the Gulf around this timeframe.
Solid 
Looks like storms firing up on the ridge tops and then outflow boundaries moving SE
Yeo looking at ens members and some show days with sea breeze stuff/Piedmont trough stuff and mountains stuff, really looks like summer on the ens
At least 3 or 4 times a summer I get what’s left of a sea breeze front and and outflow boundary from mountain stuff collide right over me in eastern Union County. When it happens it’s definitely a BOOM and usually at least 1.5-2 inches of rain.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
? ugh, I HATE the upcoming pattern. I wish I could hibernate till September.
cd2play
Member
The house that has the obit
cd2play
Member
I love those storms. The Charlotte area sits in a great spot for these type of storms. I remember one a few years ago in East Charlotte- it went severe and we had 65mph wind gusts, constant lightning, hail, torrential rain, basically everything. I think we ended up with over 3 inches in a matter of an hour!
Hrrr already in the upper 70s sun morning at 12z Sunday is gonna be hotttt
Damn. Looks like the whole east coast is going to bake on Sunday. (Thankfully, I am getting A/C in my car repaired today). I still am hoping we can squeeze a storm out somewhere.
Epic moisture train
Brad P is really tossing around the d word. I get it, it's going to be hot. But even he said the ridge is eventually going to breakdown by late next week. I think we enter a very typical summer pattern (right on schedule). So, I wish he would stop suggesting we are going to be droughting all summer. There are really no signs of that as La Nina is beginning to wane to neutral. I say let the pools and lakes heat up this week and we're golden for the holiday weekend. And we will get track some boomers. It's a win win overall.
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I like Brad but boy does he beat the current horses to death. Wasn't it just a couple of months ago he was posting about how much it rained
Too bad it wasn't about 400 miles east that dumb cutoff in the Atlantic really ---- that out
Yeah, like I said the other day he was really going on about a long term drought during the flash drought of May 2019 and that ended being a memory by the end of June. To me a severe long term drought would be a big concern to me if we were staying in a LaNina and going into it for a second year. Now that we’re getting to a neutral ENSO and according to NOAA look to stay there through next winter, we should start to see that typical summer pattern with humid air and plenty of storm opportunities just about daily. Long term, when we get into the fall, the STJ should really start to become a big player as well.
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Avalanche
Member
Not much maybe Sunday or Monday
Starting to see models hint at a baggy trough setup for early June or at least lots of energy under a weak ridge
smast16
Member
The story of our lives here. Big ol nasty plains kinda cape and it's a still as a sleeping newborn.
Maybe not a drought all summer and maybe it's isolated but umm, the crunchy dead grass and lowering creek levels around here would argue we're already in a drought. I noticed coming back from the OBX this weekend those canals and the Great Dismal Swamp are very low as well, comparatively speaking
LickWx
Member
Yeah, I was in Halifax County a couple of weeks ago and the grass was crunchy brown and the trees were all dead. It might have been from the non-stop hard freezes from Jan 1- May 15 though, not drought.