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Pattern March Thread

Headed for 80 here but next week is looking a lot colder

There may be a brief period of a
light wintry mix across portions of northeast Oklahoma late
Sunday night into Monday morning as colder air filters into
the region.
 
SD said:
I'm not sure about the rest of the month. With the mjo wave really losing traction and getting into the CoD and the upcoming jet extension/retraction we might make another run at cold but I don't feel terribly confident
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You’re right, I may have spook to soon. Looks like around the 7th-8th cooler temps start to return. Then The gfs is showing stupid cold around the 13th-14th and has had multiple runs trying to drop winter weather. A lot of the March snowstorms I’ve seen over the years have happened between March 5th through the 15th time period.
1887D009-1C50-40AD-B86C-7C031166AB57.pngD898ACD0-FE20-4F85-A845-FAA52779AB60.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This could honestly go either way, extend the jet more then this and EC trough/PNA ridge but don’t extend as much and you get central US/Rockies trough and SERView attachment 114655
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Yeah the block north of barrow is the catalyst to really flood Noam with cold again the key will be how much we are about to draw the cold vortex south and draw the trough axis east. A lot of options on the table here from bounded SER to wudge and rain to BN to late season winter threats
 
olhausen said:
You’re right, I may have spook to soon. Looks like around the 7th-8th cooler temps start to return. Then The gfs is showing stupid cold around the 13th-14th and has had multiple runs trying to drop winter weather. A lot of the March snowstorms I’ve seen over the years have happened between March 5th through the 15th time period.
View attachment 114663View attachment 114662
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You probably have a better chance of getting cold than me in this setup to be honest it'll be hard to plan completely dissolve the SER but that may yield the chance for something wintry in your area
 
You can see the end of any cold pattern on the 12z gfs/gefs already toward the end of its run as the jet retraction takes place and the ridges over AK and the west coast start to dissolve and the mean ridge axis in the pacific retrogrades. Not 100% sure it'll be that fast (models were way too fast in Jan but it had a more supportive mjo) but in a general sense any below normal period will probably have a short shelf life
 
We had a cold look for this past Monday on the models the week prior and the rug was pulled. Might see the same here as we get closer.


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SD said:
You can see the end of any cold pattern on the 12z gfs/gefs already toward the end of its run as the jet retraction takes place and the ridges over AK and the west coast start to dissolve and the mean ridge axis in the pacific retrogrades. Not 100% sure it'll be that fast (models were way too fast in Jan but it had a more supportive mjo) but in a general sense any below normal period will probably have a short shelf life
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Classic spring pattern. Back and forth stuff until one day we burn into summer. Maybe a winter threat for western upper SE area and some severe threats mixed in as well and wedge stuff for us east
 
Nice race tomorrow between reaching 80 in NC and the front. Once the front passes a location warming will likely slow or stop, 18z hrrr has it sitting along I40 at 19z tomorrow with 80s from morhead city west to CLT south mid 70s from rdu west to gso north of the fronthrrr_T2m_seus_26.pnghrrr_mslp_wind_seus_26.png
 
Likely overdone but I love what the GFS is serving mid month.

gfs_T2m_us_49.png


gfs_T2m_us_50.png


gfs_T2m_us_53.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Feels like these cold shots have been staying at day 7-10 the last couple of weeks only to modify to near normal at go time
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True this one feels more legit with supporting PV split to bring cold anomalies on our side of the map. Won’t stay that cold for a while but it’ll certainly knock the heat, bugs and humidity out of the picture for a bit
 
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