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Pattern March Thread

As long as the TPV remains around Hudson Bay, it’s gonna be a struggle to get a consistent warm pattern, it opens to door to a very variable pattern with really warm but also really BN. The TPV staying around Hudson Bay also becomes problematic for severe wx as we head deeper into March/April 15A7836B-80C5-450C-AA7B-62359400D010.png52B95C5A-C6BF-4F78-A4F3-F1C1F92120C0.png
 
This isnt far from a last gasp super storm for eastern NC. After this the low drifts SE and gets stronger.

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lexxnchloe said:
Mar01, bitter cold and a low off the coast? 1980?
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1. That airmass was somewhat colder than the modeled one for next week but this one is still very cold and it could still trend even colder.
2. March 1980 was about as close to a boardwide event as you can get as it had snow flurries into C FL, as far south as Tampa!!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
TPV has been relentless in Canada this year. Looks to continue into at least early March. Impossible to rule anything out because of that.
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I don’t know if anyone has mentioned this but that TPV staying set up over Hudson Bay could also increase severe weather chances in the southeast as we go further into March and into April
 
How? Is it due to more cold air aloft or does it teleconnect to western trough/SE ridge? And we're in a La Nina, so...maybe this spring will resemble a true Nina pattern...or not.
 
Both yesterday’s 12Z GFS and the Sunday 18Z GFS had 32 at 12Z on March 1st all the way down to Pasco County in Florida:
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But today’s 12Z GFS has Pasco County 25 warmer (upper 50s) and ATL above 32:
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For 12Z on 3/1, the Happy Hour GFS takes back 10 of those added 25 degrees at Pasco County, FL, with it in upper 40s vs upper 50s on today's 12Z (so, only another 15 degrees to go), and 32 on yesterday's 12Z. It also gets ATL back down to near 32. Thus, no toss from me:

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GaWx said:
For 12Z on 3/1, the Happy Hour GFS takes back 10 of those added 25 degrees at Pasco County, FL, with it in upper 40s vs upper 50s on today's 12Z (so, only another 15 degrees to go), and 32 on yesterday's 12Z. It also gets ATL back down to near 32. Thus, no toss from me:

View attachment 114234
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The cows down there will love it ... :p
 
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