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Pattern March Thread

SD said:
One thing everyone needs to remember when you are looking at these cold anom maps for early March is that our averages are creeping upward. So a pretty blue/green/purple cold looking map with -10-15°F anoms might still be highs 45-50 and lows 25-30.
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This said the nice block setting up near north of AK does make me wonder if we can sneak in a winter event the first week of March. I just don't know though without a -nao if we can get it done in March. Maybe @GaWx has some stats
 
SD said:
One thing everyone needs to remember when you are looking at these cold anom maps for early March is that our averages are creeping upward. So a pretty blue/green/purple cold looking map with -10-15°F anoms might still be highs 45-50 and lows 25-30.
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Exactly. A few shades of blue would still just be cold rain, we'd need Barney purples on us to really be in the game IMO.

I am just ready to move on to spring when March comes around. But it seems every year it wants to hang on and be cold and damp on into April. Yuck.
 
SnowNiner said:
Exactly. A few shades of blue would still just be cold rain, we'd need Barney purples on us to really be in the game IMO.

I am just ready to move on to spring when March comes around. But it seems every year it wants to hang on and be cold and damp on into April. Yuck.
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Mjo will be helpful/hurtful depending on what you like or do not like. Phases 8-2 favor high lat blocking in the 2nd half of March into April so if this new pulse doesn't get stuck in the MC it's likely we see cool to cold. If it gets stuck in 5-7 it's the complete opposite.

Layered on top of that we have this seasonal trend of the jet extending more than forecast and these big pacific ridges and the cold vortex kind of stuck in E Canada.

I'm not sure though the spring is as clear cut as some want it to be and the mjo might be muted a bit by the pacific from time to time. I'm also thinking the the severe prospects are higher this year than the last few
 
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SD said:
Mjo will be key phases 8-2 favor high lat blocking in the 2nd half of March into April so if this new pulse doesn't get stuck in the MC it's likely we see cool to cold. If it gets stuck in 5-7 it's the complete opposite.

Layered on top of that we have this seasonal trend of the jet extending more than forecast and these big pacific ridges and the cold vortex kind of stuck in E Canada.

I'm not sure the spring is as clear cut as some want it to be and the mjo might be muted a bit by the pacific from time to time. I'm also thinking the the severe prospects are higher this year than the last few
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I’ll go ahead and say it . If it’s anything like the last 10 years then it will be -3/-4 in Raleigh , average in Charlotte , 2-4 above in Atlanta 4-6 across Alabama . ---- 2018 2013 2015 2014 2019
 
Lickwx said:
I’ll go ahead and say it . If it’s anything like the last 10 years then it will be -3/-4 in Raleigh , average in Charlotte , 2-4 above in Atlanta 4-6 across Alabama . ---- 2018 2013 2015 2014 2019
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I remember March 2018 at FT Benning being cold for a period, since I was outside in the elements. After looking it up, it appears it was one specific week. I also remember that period had the Jacksonville AL tornado and some significant hail, Cullman AL damage come to mind.
1645204508639.png
 
HSVweather said:
I remember March 2018 at FT Benning being cold for a period, since I was outside in the elements. After looking it up, it appears it was one specific week. I also remember that period had the Jacksonville AL tornado and some significant hail, Cullman AL damage come to mind.
View attachment 113903
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We got 1 inch of snow here that week. The night of 3/12/18 and early morning 3/13/18. Not unprecedented but pretty rare for my area. Good times.
 
SD said:
This said the nice block setting up near north of AK does make me wonder if we can sneak in a winter event the first week of March. I just don't know though without a -nao if we can get it done in March. Maybe @GaWx has some stats
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History says it can get done in March without a -NAO. These were all big (6”+) RDU snows (I included 2/26/1963 because 2/26 is only 3 days from March):

- 3/2-3/1960: +0.1 neutral NAO

- 3/9/1960: -0.2 neutral NAO

- 2/26/1963: +0.2 neutral NAO

- 3/1-2/1980: +0.4 +NAO

- 3/24/1983: +0.1 neutral NAO


So we have those 5 vs only 2 with -NAO:

- 3/1/1969: -0.6 -NAO
- 2/26-7/2004: -0.5 -NAO


Also, I’m not even including any possible non -NAO big RDU icestorms in this list, which are more difficult to list for obvious reasons. Then again, I’d rather we have El Niño for a better shot at a late season snow though. And even these stats show neutral NAO would be better than +NAO, which is being forecasted:

8C9207C7-A84C-4459-8E9E-150B7B90EDF3.gif

Edit: Also March of 1993 was also not during a -NAO. It had a +0.5 +NAO. I didn’t include it in my list because that didn’t give RDU a big snow.
 
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HSVweather said:
I remember March 2018 at FT Benning being cold for a period, since I was outside in the elements. After looking it up, it appears it was one specific week. I also remember that period had the Jacksonville AL tornado and some significant hail, Cullman AL damage come to mind.
View attachment 113903
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March 12th 2018 was the last accumulating snow I’ve had in March. Ironically I’ve had 3-4 April snow showers and even a late April dusting since then. We are definitely due for a March snow here.
F1CFEFAF-9CD8-49CD-AB51-A0A92C156A19.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS breaks the pattern down quick lol, brings a badly tilted AK ridge as well View attachment 113914
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However, it is colder than the 12Z GEFS and still has some leftover slight BNs lingering in the morning at 360 at 2m due to the typical lag between H5 and 2m:
ecmen_12_2mtpdp_us_h_0360.png


Overall, the 12Z EPS is BN for a longer duration vs the 12Z GEFS though it is delayed in getting the SER knocked down enough vs the 12Z GEFS. Whereas the GEFS is already BN 2/26, it ends 3/1. The EPS waits til 2/27 to go BN but it then stays BN into the AM of 3/5

Thus the 11-15 map is much colder for the EPS vs the GEFS:

12Z EPS 11-15 at 2m:
ecmen_12_2mtpdp_us_dr-0005_0015.png

12Z GEFS 11-15 at 2m: warmer vs 12Z EPS and mainly NN/why I wasn't crazy about it

gfsen_12_2mtpdp_us_dr-0005_0015.png

Regardless and despite the 12Z EPS being colder than the 12Z GEFS, I still don't currently have a lot of confidence in the cold coming back with a decent duration and magnitude, especially way down here in the deep SE.
 
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