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Pattern March Thread

As long as the TPV remains around Hudson Bay, it’s gonna be a struggle to get a consistent warm pattern, it opens to door to a very variable pattern with really warm but also really BN. The TPV staying around Hudson Bay also becomes problematic for severe wx as we head deeper into March/April 15A7836B-80C5-450C-AA7B-62359400D010.png52B95C5A-C6BF-4F78-A4F3-F1C1F92120C0.png
 
This isnt far from a last gasp super storm for eastern NC. After this the low drifts SE and gets stronger.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png
 
lexxnchloe said:
Mar01, bitter cold and a low off the coast? 1980?
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1. That airmass was somewhat colder than the modeled one for next week but this one is still very cold and it could still trend even colder.
2. March 1980 was about as close to a boardwide event as you can get as it had snow flurries into C FL, as far south as Tampa!!
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
TPV has been relentless in Canada this year. Looks to continue into at least early March. Impossible to rule anything out because of that.
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I don’t know if anyone has mentioned this but that TPV staying set up over Hudson Bay could also increase severe weather chances in the southeast as we go further into March and into April
 
How? Is it due to more cold air aloft or does it teleconnect to western trough/SE ridge? And we're in a La Nina, so...maybe this spring will resemble a true Nina pattern...or not.
 
Both yesterday’s 12Z GFS and the Sunday 18Z GFS had 32 at 12Z on March 1st all the way down to Pasco County in Florida:
B553C680-A199-4E4F-A34E-57B03182CE7B.jpeg9D01B305-6362-44FE-84F8-3934A8060E71.jpeg

But today’s 12Z GFS has Pasco County 25 warmer (upper 50s) and ATL above 32:
018236EA-B684-4C45-BC9D-25D28952F551.png
 
For 12Z on 3/1, the Happy Hour GFS takes back 10 of those added 25 degrees at Pasco County, FL, with it in upper 40s vs upper 50s on today's 12Z (so, only another 15 degrees to go), and 32 on yesterday's 12Z. It also gets ATL back down to near 32. Thus, no toss from me:

gfsop_18_t2ms_gc_h_0162.png
 
GaWx said:
For 12Z on 3/1, the Happy Hour GFS takes back 10 of those added 25 degrees at Pasco County, FL, with it in upper 40s vs upper 50s on today's 12Z (so, only another 15 degrees to go), and 32 on yesterday's 12Z. It also gets ATL back down to near 32. Thus, no toss from me:

View attachment 114234
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The cows down there will love it ... :p
 
Hey massive changes warm warm warm

It would be more efficient to just set an automated message so you don't have to go to the trouble of posting it several times a day.
 
Rain Cold said:
Hey massive changes warm warm warm

It would be more efficient to just set an automated message so you don't have to go to the trouble of posting it several times a day.
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What’s the difference vs posting cold maps and cold trends several times in January like I did, it’s the same thing just the opposite, it generated no issues. only difference is I’m doing warm now and since it’s not liked, then it has issues. it’s a impressive change that’s still happening and adjusting on models and I see no issue with posting it, we have warmed nearly 40F on some models, this is stuff that matches the February 2021 fail
 
GaWx said:
For 12Z on 3/1, the Happy Hour GFS takes back 10 of those added 25 degrees at Pasco County, FL, with it in upper 40s vs upper 50s on today's 12Z (so, only another 15 degrees to go), and 32 on yesterday's 12Z. It also gets ATL back down to near 32. Thus, no toss from me:

View attachment 114234
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Followup about Pasco County, FL, and ATL for modeled lows on March 1st:

Pasco County: back up to 56 on today’s 12Z GFS and 62 on today’s 12Z Euro vs 32 on both the 12Z GFS run of just 48 hours ago (12Z run of 2/21) and the 2/20 18Z GFS run.

ATL: now 44 on today’s 12Z GFS vs 22 on 12Z GFS of 2/21:

12Z GFS today:
BBF8E354-9AB7-4153-9077-315C6F584DC4.png

12Z Euro today:
CCA9C4FE-1011-427F-8C6E-CBA4E2472AA5.png

12Z GFS of 2 days ago (2/21):
80509185-AFDC-44FD-9A1C-A042828B3A7D.jpeg

Cows will love it @pcbjr. ;)
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
CPC, pretty classic -PNA/-EPO/SER look View attachment 114303View attachment 114304
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I’m not shooting the messenger but will say that to me the -PNA/SER is by far the butt ugliest H5 pattern on the face of the Earth. ? December made me hate it more than ever. It was on models day after day after day after day and never seemed to want to end.

No offense to the poster, but I absolutely can’t stand the SER.
 
It’s a pattern that could get us very warm days, but a breakdown of this sort of pattern would easily get us pretty cold, cold is on our side A587434F-150F-4550-BC10-E7B02DE7C471.pngDC015FFA-0698-49AD-8EC4-650AB37F3CC2.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s a pattern that could get us very warm days, but a breakdown of this sort of pattern would easily get us pretty cold, cold is on our side View attachment 114306View attachment 114307
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Really love the big blocking signals up in the cold regions but that -PNA is really cutting into our fun .. if can’t fix that that SER isn’t going to have a problem winning all these battles through March. I’d lose hope (already have really) for any winter precip come late March if we can’t see any drastic changes + increasingly worse climo
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Really love the big blocking signals up in the cold regions but that -PNA is really cutting into our fun .. if can’t fix that that SER isn’t going to have a problem winning all these battles through March. I’d lose hope (already have really) for any winter precip come late March if we can’t see any drastic changes + increasingly worse climo
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Seems like we only get blocks when the -PNA is present lol (December for example), honestly a somewhat similar pacific configuration to December being modeled, difference is the Hudson Bay vortex, normally a -NAO ruins the fun for warmth but a Hudson Bay vortex could do the same8890CF7A-0F29-4E4F-886F-8FFE7274D632.gif92AD8FA3-EB9E-476C-8E07-24525763C7B0.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Really love the big blocking signals up in the cold regions but that -PNA is really cutting into our fun .. if can’t fix that that SER isn’t going to have a problem winning all these battles through March. I’d lose hope (already have really) for any winter precip come late March if we can’t see any drastic changes + increasingly worse climo
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It looks really bad right now for longlasting SE BN prospects. Regarding blocks, nothing trumps the W coast block/+PNA block for the SE, especially deep SE, and that's now nowhere to be found once into March. :(

#IHateBugs

Edit: But the recent very longlasting +PNA has been an absolute pleasure to experience.
 
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As long as we can keep the humidity negated, that's all that matters to me at this point. We could get a potential storm as we are technically in February and going into march, but at this point I think winter is all but over from a frozen precip standpoint just based on the overall pattern going forward. Biggest thing is keep cool to average temps and again most importantly, low humidity through the next couple of months before we turn into the armpit of the united states for the next 6 months.
 
Lots of warm members on the temp spreads, it’s a great time of the year to be above average with that normally meaning upper 60s/70s which is great weather to do outdoor activities 92E91CA5-2013-4A22-91EE-2A94FC7993A0.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lots of warm members on the temp spreads, it’s a great time of the year to be above average with that normally meaning upper 60s/70s which is great weather to do outdoor activities View attachment 114318
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Here that means 80s, which is not good for outdoors from my standpoint unless dewpoints stay under 55. So, I'll be hoping for a lot of relatively dry air with any warmth. Who needs 80s when we get 80s+ almost every day for 5+ months straight? And of course there are the dreaded bugs. I love the dead of winter with virtually no flying bugs!

If it can stay dry, then at least the skeeters will be delayed.
 
GaWx said:
Here that means 80s, which is not good for outdoors from my standpoint unless dewpoints stay under 55. So, I'll be hoping for a lot of relatively dry air with any warmth. Who needs 80s when we get 80s+ almost every day for 5+ months straight? And of course there are the dreaded bugs. I love the dead of winter with virtually no flying bugs!

If it can stay dry, then at least the skeeters will be delayed.
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Humidity and bugs are my 2 biggest complaints about summer.
 
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