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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

SD said:
That's a pretty solid line back you guys way. Crazy how it runs out of gas on the 3k
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I can't imagine that this thing runs out of steam as the afternoon progresses. That would be insane. That's why I am not letting my guard down. Too many uncertainties are never good when dealing with severe weather.
 
BHS1975 said:
Overhyped as usual.


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I've always heard the SPC always lean towards worst case scenario when it comes to severe weather. I could be wrong though since it's only something that was told to me.
 
Our schools just called a two hour delay which makes sense with timing. 54.5 here and I won’t be upset if things turn out weak. Storms riding a receding wedge front are usually nasty.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Yeah the wedge isn’t a savior it just enhances the severe weather when it moves over that boundary ... this starting to look increasingly bad for the i64 corridor
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That’s where I live :). 64 is life baby, it ain’t but 30 years old too, they dug up the whole eastern nc to build it .
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gonna be a close one for areas back west to see how far we advect 60+ dews as those storms move in, probably gonna be easier to do that from Raleigh-fay View attachment 79485
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Now that's a little more concerning if we start breaking the line up into discrete cells. I'm trying so hard to remember what the models looked like heading into the 2011 outbreak here and I just can't
 
SD said:
Now that's a little more concerning if we start breaking the line up into discrete cells. I'm trying so hard to remember what the models looked like heading into the 2011 outbreak here and I just can't
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Look isn’t far from what models did last year in SC either lol After Easter Sunday
Guess it has something to do with the low level wind profile, shitload of Low level shear/huge Hodographs and backed low level flow probably means broken up storms with inflow 89DFE095-FB3C-4206-B372-F3C71E24865F.png4ED35F3B-E1ED-48A5-94E6-F0E323994D1C.png
 
SD said:
Now that's a little more concerning if we start breaking the line up into discrete cells. I'm trying so hard to remember what the models looked like heading into the 2011 outbreak here and I just can't
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Found this and as I recall models showed a line breaking up into discrete cells. Interesting ABC11 in house model showed something similar tonight for tomorrow.... all bets off if wedge doesn't scour out though
1616030350492.png
 
metwannabe said:
Found this and as I recall models showed a line breaking up into discrete cells. Interesting ABC11 in house model showed something similar tonight for tomorrow.... all bets off if wedge doesn't scour out though
View attachment 79498
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In some ways like that particular event, these storms will be mostly firing along a pre-frontal trough that's being created by today's activity in MS/AL
 
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