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Severe March 14-17 Severe

Arcc said:
The 6z Euro really, really looks like what happens so often. If it is right on the early morning convection, my guess based on thinking of previous systems will look like this below. Worst tornado chances would start in the black circle and move into the red overnight.

Edit: If you live near Prattville, AL, you probably need to sleep in the basement.

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This has been my thing this whole time. The convective blow up this afternoon through tonight is going to have some type of impact on tomorrow. The magnitude at this point remains to be seen but it's going to play a role in potentially backing the threat down for some but enhancing it for others
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
From the chatroom discussion with NWS BMX this morning this solution is an outlier basically. There will be some showers but their confidence in the recovery of the atmosphere is very high and some say the showers will not affect anything
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This is the 12z HRRR which basically has a large convective mass over most of Northern MS.
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I really am starting to wonder if SPC is going to consider issuing a high risk for the threat this evening. HRRR has been showing a band of supercells with very intense UH tracks in MO for a couple of runs now. It could still back off, which it has done before, but the environment seems ripe for intense storms.1741962684232.gif
 
Arcc said:
This is the 12z HRRR which basically has a large convective mass over most of Northern MS.
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Every time the HRRR runs it gives me the freaks!! Is there anything to mitigate this storm threat?? I’m very concerned for all in its path.. I have spent my day subbing at a high school informing everyone I can about a safety plan, and being weather aware Saturday nite. Some are already making/changing plans to be safe.. others it concerns me deeply when they say.. oh it’s just gonna be thunderstorms.. but what can I do.. plant the seed.. if they think I’m a nut for warning them how to be safe.. so be it.. I’m subbing/teaching a math class today.. but I am taking time to tell them about the potential Saturday night and how to be safe, because I definitely want to see them next Friday when I sub for the same teacher.
 
I fully expect a portion of East MS/West-Central Alabama to get a high upgrade for tomorrow and I think the moderate will continue to expand into Western GA maybe all way up to ATL at this point.
 
Psalm 148:8 said:
Every time the HRRR runs it gives me the freaks!! Is there anything to mitigate this storm threat?? I’m very concerned for all in its path.. I have spent my day subbing at a high school informing everyone I can about a safety plan, and being weather aware Saturday nite. Some are already making/changing plans to be safe.. others it concerns me deeply when they say.. oh it’s just gonna be thunderstorms.. but what can I do.. plant the seed.. if they think I’m a nut for warning them how to be safe.. so be it.. I’m subbing/teaching a math class today.. but I am taking time to tell them about the potential Saturday night and how to be safe, because I definitely want to see them next Friday when I sub for the same teacher.
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There are several things that can mitigate this threat. Definitely watch for this.

One is a large convective mass that will not clear. This is common issue in these setups and is a much bigger issue for those in the north. The southern portions aren't affected as much and as SD said could possibly be enhanced.

The second issue could be just inflow competition and disruption which the HRRR is also showing signs of. This happens often in SW flow aloft setups. Once again, southern areas are less affected by this issue.
 
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PEA_RIDGE said:
From the chatroom discussion with NWS BMX this morning this solution is an outlier basically. There will be some showers but their confidence in the recovery of the atmosphere is very high and some say the showers will not affect anything
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It’s a continued wish cast by the same people. Junk convection will 99.9% not be a concern for Dixie Alley. This is an extreme threat for all of Alabama, especially along and north of I-20.
 
It’ll be interesting to see how this transitions to the Piedmont late Saturday night into Sunday morning. I don’t think we will have as much junkvection as other areas. Our saving grace could be timing. GSP has been a little bit ominous with their wording, mentioning the possibility of a strong tornado. And Brad mentioned that the threat of tornadoes could go up or down here.

Edit- GSP mentioned in their AFD that it has system has slowed down a bit and could linger the threat of severe weather into the afternoon, which of course would spell trouble.
 
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Mahomeless said:
This is honestly setting up just like 4/27/11 with regard to timing, the 1-2 punch overnight then into the next afternoon, synoptically, SPC's risk overlays days in advance, increasing model data as the event gets closer....eerily similar!
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as someone who lived that event, starting by tracking it from a week out to being out of power for a week with no gas within 100 miles, this feels very very eerily similar to the forbidden date. Thought I would never see a setup like that in my lifetime again but here we are, hope this is just a cruel joke and mother nature laughs at us when it busts......
 
ForsythSnow said:
Between this and the FV3 I'm very much concerned this will be a massive outbreak well into GA too. At least the FV3 keeps the STP lower.
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Verbatim looking at the sim reflectivity, the FV3 would be relatively mild as far as this event goes. The large convective mass shown on the model would mean most of that UH Birmingham northward is overdone. Not saying it plays out like the model suggests though.
 
Something to keep in mind for todays risk area is that the main severe threat probably wont begin until after 4-5 PM CDT. A large part of the threat for today will be nocturnal.
 
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