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Severe March 14-17 Severe

Regarding tomorrow, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 15% tornado risk being introduced at some point from somewhere around S. IL to MS. The big question is on how quickly storms form in the evening heading into the overnight hours. FV3 is a worst-case scenario, but knowing its tendencies, I think it’s too aggressive. However, even if only a few discrete storms form in the evening, they are likely to be intense.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The more SWlys aloft makes a sizable difference in storm mode and the ability for storms to produce tornadoes, especially Dixie. This is why flatter setups typically overproduce in setups (March 3 2019 is an example) Ideally need more westerlies aloft with more backed low levels/near sfc. Comparing this to 2011, this one is more SWly in the mid levels, which encourages more upscale growth and junk. But synoptically, it’s not very far off. But still, getting more dominant cellular mode is extremely difficult in highly forced regimes, and mesoscale features just right for a dominant supercellular mode is difficult as well (OFBs/boundaries/localized areas of more streamwise vorticity, etc). Definitely a high ceiling on this one thoughView attachment 171612View attachment 171613
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Doing some thinking. January 12 2023 also fits what you were saying.
 
SD said:
Im surprised the 3k nam was so sparse with convection but I assume it was a timing issue and would have filled in after hour 60. The fv3 hires was rough
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Agreed, 3K Nam didn't look too concerning for the Friday activity around my way. More of a decent hit later in the day on Saturday. To your point, the FV3 looks concerning. May can throw the RGEM in there as well.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Agreed, 3K Nam didn't look too concerning for the Friday activity around my way. More of a decent hit later in the day on Saturday. To your point, the FV3 looks concerning. May can throw the RGEM in there as well.
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Yeah fv3 really raised the red flag on the late Friday storms as well.
 
Hate doing imby question but for the first time in forever we booked a Spring break beach trip. Going to Gulf Shores. Never been there, don't know the area at all. We usually stick to the Carolinas or East coast Florida. How do these systems usually go through there? The little I've looked at makes me think anything really bad tends to blow up a little further East and North on average.
 
Got the April 27 shivers again, and it's sunny and bright outside now. Wonder if that will make them complacent with St Patrick's celebrations going on. Plus, Metro ATL has escaped the brunt of the tornadic activity in 2 years. I fear that time will run out.
 
This wording from SPC doesn't get much stronger than this: "Particularly Volatile Scenario"


...SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central
Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous
significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and
evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely.

...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley...
Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all
categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the
Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for
destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening
on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region.
 
Darklordsuperstorm said:
This wording from SPC doesn't get much stronger than this: "Particularly Volatile Scenario"


...SUMMARY...
A severe weather outbreak is expected on Saturday across the central
Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous
significant tornadoes are possible on Saturday afternoon and
evening, centered on eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
Widespread damaging wind swaths and scattered large hail are likely.

...Central Gulf Coast/Deep South/TN Valley...
Primary change is to expand level 4-MDT north in AL and all
categories west in the tight gradient of severe potential from the
Sabine to Lower MS Valleys. A particularly volatile scenario for
destructive severe remains evident during the afternoon to evening
on Saturday centered on the level 4-MDT risk region.
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So they can still shift it east right?


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24e8d83203d5e2329c4937719be2f8a9.jpg

I’m starting to get a little worried about SE AL into Eastern FL panhandle


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I think this is a really valid paragraph and statement from the Memphis AFD this afternoon. This storm system is going to go one way or the other for us locally:

Also on Friday, severe weather parameters will be on the rise
underneath a strong capping inversion. High-resolution guidance
quickly erodes this cap after sunset as height falls increase. At
this point, the environment will house over 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE,
lapse rates in excess of 7.0 C/km, and bulk shear near 50 kts. The
main caveat to this forecast lies in storm initialization. If the
cap remains strong, storm development is not anticipated.
However, erosion of this inversion will result in a potentially
high-end severe weather maker with supercells capable of producing
all hazards. We would like to note: this severe setup will be
nocturnal. Nighttime tornadoes account for the majority of tornado
related fatalities each year in the United States. Therefore, we
emphasize that you and your loved ones ensure you have a way to be
alerted if you are asleep. Do not place your cellphones on do not
disturb.
 
Rain Cold said:
I haven't either. A few of the soundings I've poked around have shown it, so who knows.
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I think it is mostly just the NAM which also shows much higher directional shear and slightly greater backed westerly flow aloft. I am wary there as the NAM has overdone both parameters last year if I remember correctly VS reality.
 
campamy said:
Hate doing imby question but for the first time in forever we booked a Spring break beach trip. Going to Gulf Shores. Never been there, don't know the area at all. We usually stick to the Carolinas or East coast Florida. How do these systems usually go through there? The little I've looked at makes me think anything really bad tends to blow up a little further East and North on average.
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Correct, usually the major severe impacts are north of the coast. The system should be through that area by early Sunday morning. Possibly wait until Sunday to travel if possible. Hope you enjoy the Gulf Shores area.
 
Interestingly, the 3K NAM and the RGEM at 18z show a trend where the convection out runs the best instability around 06Z in GA. This leads to a lower risk of tornadoes east of Alabama, but they are still very much possible. They show CAPE building behind this first line but by then the atmosphere is pretty worked over and it's early morning, so not much of a risk would remain, I would think.
 
Cape is off the charts. I usually laugh these severe threats off because the severe weenies think every storm is another Joplin but I’m not getting that vibe with this one unfortunately. Worrisome.

This is a hurricane developing in the middle of the country. These storms belong in the ocean.
IMG_2044.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Cape is off the charts. I usually laugh these severe threats off because the severe weenies think every storm is another Joplin but I’m not getting that vibe with this one unfortunately. Worrisome.

This is a hurricane developing in the middle of the country. These storms belong in the ocean.
View attachment 171638
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Yeah what's been more disturbing to me is that the models havent backed off

But I mean too a 45 percent hatched on day 3 from the SPC is extremely eye opening
 
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