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Severe March 14-17 Severe

Still think a higher tornado threat may materialize tomorrow evening into the overnight from IL down to TN. 00z HRRR coming in more aggressively with supercells in a very ripe environment. Would not be surprised to see a 15% tornado risk introduced. Very concerning that it’s going to pretty much be a nocturnal event as well.1741915887126.gif
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Really think the highest tor threat will be in central MS extending into east central AL given the history on these setups. Typically the boundary/cool pool layed down by earlier more elevated convection is further south then modeled, and under modeled at that. That notorious area from Tupelo-Tuscaloosa all the way down to Bassfield in that general range in between has the best shot at supercells that manage to produce tornadoes, some strong. Worth watching the more dominant supercells on Saturday and if any sort of convection can form near them, sometime supercell nudgers have been responsible for significant tornadoes. Could also hinder the threat IMG_6486.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Really think the highest tor threat will be in central MS extending into east central AL given the history on these setups. Typically the boundary/cool pool layed down by earlier more elevated convection is further south then modeled, and under modeled at that. That notorious area from Tupelo-Tuscaloosa all the way down to Bassfield in that general range in between has the best shot at supercells that manage to produce tornadoes, some strong. Worth watching the more dominant supercells on Saturday and if any sort of convection can form near them, sometime supercell nudgers have been responsible for significant tornadoes. Could also hinder the threat View attachment 171644
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That would pretty typical over there tbh

I've always thought that was like a mini tornado alley
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Really think the highest tor threat will be in central MS extending into east central AL given the history on these setups. Typically the boundary/cool pool layed down by earlier more elevated convection is further south then modeled, and under modeled at that. That notorious area from Tupelo-Tuscaloosa all the way down to Bassfield in that general range in between has the best shot at supercells that manage to produce tornadoes, some strong. Worth watching the more dominant supercells on Saturday and if any sort of convection can form near them, sometime supercell nudgers have been responsible for significant tornadoes. Could also hinder the threat View attachment 171644
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Did you mean West-Central Alabama ?
 
TileDude said:
Setting there just north of Birmingham, getting somewhat anxious about this situation. Plan, prepare and pray is about all we can do.
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Yeah it was kind of ironic when I told people I was moving to Oklahoma a few years ago everyone was omg the tornadoes

Like I know Moore happened but guys I grew up in Alabama and was there then. It takes a lot of severe weather to scare me but this feels like one of those times
 
BufordWX said:
HRRR starting to show intense discrete supercells forming in MS this evening.View attachment 171652
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Could be some pretty structured supercells down there today, excellent ventilation in the mid and upper levels, also favorable for large hail. could be a significant tornado in MS today to, lots of direction shear and low level streamwise vorticity, especially if the BL isn’t as mixed. This sounding is a bit more plains esque IMG_6487.png
 
Thankful we have a large basement but texted all those close to me that it’s wide open tomorrow for anyone. I hope this busts like the Canadian in the heart of winter but I’m uneasy about tomorrow. Everyone stay safe and take tomorrow seriously. I’ll let the severe posters keep me well informed on here, I appreciate all of your posts.
 
Parker said:
Thankful we have a large basement but texted all those close to me that it’s wide open tomorrow for anyone. I hope this busts like the Canadian in the heart of winter but I’m uneasy about tomorrow. Everyone stay safe and take tomorrow seriously. I’ll let the severe posters keep me well informed on here, I appreciate all of your posts.
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Thinking about ya’ll Parker. Batten down the hatches.
 
The 6z Euro really, really looks like what happens so often. If it is right on the early morning convection, my guess based on thinking of previous systems will look like this below. Worst tornado chances would start in the black circle and move into the red overnight.

Edit: If you live near Prattville, AL, you probably need to sleep in the basement.

Screenshot_20250314_081652_Firefox.jpg
 
Arcc said:
The 6z Euro really, really looks like what happens so often. If it is right on the early morning convection, my guess based on thinking of previous systems will look like this below. Worst tornado chances would start in the black circle and move into the red overnight.

Edit: If you live near Prattville, AL, you probably need to sleep in the basement.

View attachment 171657
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Hope you’re right. I’m worried the atmosphere will have time to recover north of your circles.

I think we’ll have a good idea by brunch time.
 
I know that this board usually is a busy bee in Winter Weather season and sorta mute so far for this storm. I hope members who are more winter oriented are keeping checks and eyes on this one. The more people that get the word out to family and friends and are tracking tomorrow specifically the better. This doesn't seem to be showing specific signatures that could legitimately weaken this threat and it has all the looks of one of the top end outbreaks we have had since 2011.
 
Parker said:
Hope you’re right. I’m worried the atmosphere will have time to recover north of your circles.

I think we’ll have a good idea by brunch time.
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If past events hold correct, yes. By late morning if the above scenario occurs, you will see the regions that just cannot clear junk convection and where a cold pool may begin to form. Not that areas north could not see severe weather, but the most dangerous areas should be clear.
 
Arcc said:
The 6z Euro really, really looks like what happens so often. If it is right on the early morning convection, my guess based on thinking of previous systems will look like this below. Worst tornado chances would start in the black circle and move into the red overnight.

Edit: If you live near Prattville, AL, you probably need to sleep in the basement.

View attachment 171657
Click to expand...
Arcc said:
The 6z Euro really, really looks like what happens so often. If it is right on the early morning convection, my guess based on thinking of previous systems will look like this below. Worst tornado chances would start in the black circle and move into the red overnight.

Edit: If you live near Prattville, AL, you probably need to sleep in the basement.

View attachment 171657
Click to expand...
From the chatroom discussion with NWS BMX this morning this solution is an outlier basically. There will be some showers but their confidence in the recovery of the atmosphere is very high and some say the showers will not affect anything
 
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