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Severe March 14-17 Severe

Snippet from the latest day 3 SPC outlook. Mentions a conditional risk for strong tornadoes after midnight Saturday morning.

...MS/AL/TN Overnight...
As the upper wave departs to the north, mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints will surge north across MS, western AL and the western FL Panhandle during the evening and overnight. As mentioned, height falls will be maintained due to the secondary wave moving into TX. The result will be a persistent 50-60 kt low-level jet beneath 60 kt midlevel southwesterlies, and increasing boundary-layer moisture. This regime is likely to support scattered thunderstorms after 06Z, and the overall environment conditionally supports strong tornadoes. The severe risk will only increase into Saturday/D4. As such, have extended the Enhanced Risk farther south across MS and western AL.
 
SD said:
For us in the carolinas this threat has an attention worthy potential but it's highly conditional. Overall outcome will probably show itself later Saturday into Sunday AM as we see the evolution to the SW.
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At minimum we should be able to get 30-40 gust sat night, through passage sun evening. Also at a minimum is 1-2 qpf from this event an wash rinse repeat Wed into Thurs next week. minimum of 2-4 qpf late Sat through Thurs a good bet
 
From John DeBlock, meteorologist from bham nws

Ok folks...time to get serious. The upcoming forecast for early this weekend has the potential to be a significant southeastern US severe weather event.

THIS is an event to take seriously. It's not one of those little whimpy winter weather tornado threats like we've had the last few months...this is a full-fledged, legitimate, bona fide "springtime in Alabama" severe weather threat.

I'm going to get right to the point...and I'm going to borrow from the well stated words of a good friend and coworker:

"If you have plans for Saturday, I highly suggest you cancel/change them! Saturday is shaping up to be a significant weather day for much of Alabama. Unfortunately, we are looking at a potential outbreak-type event. Go ahead and start preparing NOW.
There will also be a threat of severe weather late Friday into early Saturday morning. If that happens, DO NOT assume that's the end! As always, please be prepared and heed warnings. However, the main event looks to be Saturday afternoon and into the night.
US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama will be updating the attached graphic at least twice a day through Saturday. We will work on narrowing down the time frame as we get closer."

Y'all know I'm all about going to watch my daughter play softball, right? Well, they are "in town" just a few miles down the road at Montevallo this weekend, scheduled right now to play 2 on Friday and 1 game Saturday at noon. Well, guess what. I'm not going to be attending that game Saturday. I'll be in the lineup at the office for the severe weather threat. I am putting action to my concerns.

You're going to hear a lot of different things being talked about, but regardless of how significant the parameters are or what risk level gets assigned, your basic task remains the same: be prepared and maintain weather awareness over the next few days. Be the hero and make sure your family, friends, and acquantainces are as well.

The forecast details are still just a little bit hazy as far as the timing and magnitude, and meteorologists will continue to assess the threat and make adjustments and more specific forecasts as we get closer to the event, but the images below clearly represent the latest thinking of the US National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama, where you should follow for the latest information.

PS...there is a low risk for severe thunderstorms with large hail and gusty winds on Thursday. Thursday is NOT the main concern through this weekend!
 
Friday afternoon and early evening I think is going to have two main regimens of significant severe potential.

18z NAM is showing a decent chance at a serial derecho with widespread damaging winds and embedded tornadoes in the Midwest on Friday. I would not be surprised to see a wind-driven moderate risk introduced at some point up there.

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Further south is where supercells could be possible. One area could be on the southern end of the main line, but also near the dry line, which is going to extend into Arkansas by this point, so there may be a window for a few discrete supercells to develop off it, and I feel like models typically struggle with those. I am going to be interested to see how the other high-res models handle this as we get closer.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Pretty irresponsible....to be fair, I don't know who in the hell this guy is, but there's not even a fair comparison to 4.27.11...even in the analogs
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Hes a chaser who works for LSM

So yeah not even a real met

I knew the 4/27 comparisons would pop up though... Just like 93 always does in the winter
 
Brent said:
Yeah should at least wait for more hi res models

I mean yes the potential ceiling is very high no doubt but we're still 72 hours away. Impossible to pin stuff down at this range
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Yeah, the possibility is there for dangerous weather no doubt, but we are still ways from the March outbreaks of 2021.

Edit: Now March 25 2021 was the most dangerous day I've seen since 4/27. Despite the junk, it still produced.
 
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Showmeyourtds said:
Pretty irresponsible....to be fair, I don't know who in the hell this guy is, but there's not even a fair comparison to 4.27.11...even in the analogs
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Been around a very long time.. the old Talkweather crew with me and Jack Watkins.. respect him you must… experience he has! If you can explain my avatar then you know I’m from the old crew… excuse me.. my old avatar.. the groundhog with the machine gun…
 
This system has legs and everyone wants to compare to that event everytime well because it was a historical event.

We tend to forgot there have been quite a many of legit tornadic outbreaks in the south all thru history and ever few years we get some big ones. The 4/27/11 storm is in its own class but theres been alot of legit scary outbreaks since then that are high scale event that we shouldn't overlook just like this one looks to be
 
There's 100% going to be severe for many areas. The wind profiles are really concerning for LA/MS/AL, along with what should be adequate instability. It's really just a matter of whether or not the warm sector can remain intact through the morning on Saturday. If so, look out.
 
The more SWlys aloft makes a sizable difference in storm mode and the ability for storms to produce tornadoes, especially Dixie. This is why flatter setups typically overproduce in setups (March 3 2019 is an example) Ideally need more westerlies aloft with more backed low levels/near sfc. Comparing this to 2011, this one is more SWly in the mid levels, which encourages more upscale growth and junk. But synoptically, it’s not very far off. But still, getting more dominant cellular mode is extremely difficult in highly forced regimes, and mesoscale features just right for a dominant supercellular mode is difficult as well (OFBs/boundaries/localized areas of more streamwise vorticity, etc). Definitely a high ceiling on this one thoughIMG_6481.jpegIMG_6480.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The more SWlys aloft makes a sizable difference in storm mode and the ability for storms to produce tornadoes, especially Dixie. This is why flatter setups typically overproduce in setups (March 3 2019 is an example) Ideally need more westerlies aloft with more backed low levels/near sfc. Comparing this to 2011, this one is more SWly in the mid levels, which encourages more upscale growth and junk. But synoptically, it’s not very far off. But still, getting more dominant cellular mode is extremely difficult in highly forced regimes, and mesoscale features just right for a dominant supercellular mode is difficult as well (OFBs/boundaries/localized areas of more streamwise vorticity, etc). Definitely a high ceiling on this one thoughView attachment 171612View attachment 171613
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Bingo. Unidirectional SW flow from 850mb to 500mb along with SW-SSW at 500mb will mean junk convection will be an issue along with impeded inflow. Normally in the past this definitely limits supercellur tornadoes except for the death alley around Yazoo City, MS. Doesn't mean the setup isn't dangerous, but definitely this is a historical Achilles heel if you want a large outbreak.(Non-QLCS)
 
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NWTENN said:
Guys, Brad Arnold didn't compare this coming event to 4/27. He said it has the potential to be the worst SINCE then. In other words, it COULD be the worst outbreak since POST 4/27/2011.
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It could be a lot of things, but the likelihood of it being the largest outbreak since 4/27 is small enough that we shouldn't be putting it out there.
 
The FV3 is known as a supercell printer, but it does show an interesting picture with an overnight environment supportive of all hazards severe storms Friday night into Saturday morning for E MS, W TN, and W AL. Dont want people to overlook this potential due to the bigger threat on Saturday. This also may be a more aggressive output, but the potential for storms does appear to be there.

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They are definitely all banging the drum around here. We’ve already had some decent damage from the last two systems with gradient winds. We haven’t had a true Tornado outbreak in awhile around here. I bet we see a high risk if trends continue in southern Mississippi and SW central Alabama.
 
Parker said:
They are definitely all banging the drum around here. We’ve already had some decent damage from the last two systems with gradient winds. We haven’t had a true Tornado outbreak in awhile around here. I bet we see a high risk if trends continue in southern Mississippi and SW central Alabama.
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Yeah I was thinking last night about how lucky y'all have been lately. I remember all the posts about the lack of warnings from Birmingham last year while we had a record number of tornadoes

But I mean we're probably gonna have 50-60 mph winds Friday from this. That's pretty hard to do here with no precip
 
What are the chances of the mdt risk being shifted more east into parts of South AL/Eastern FL Places Like Enterprise/ Panama City And Dothan?

I know the area is supposed to be weak when the storms arrive but what are the chances it uptrends?

Just Saying This Cause I’m Worried That Something May Happen And I Don’t Wanna Be Caught Off Guard


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SegTindoProWx said:
What are the chances of the mdt risk being shifted more east into parts of South AL/Eastern FL Places Like Enterprise/ Panama City And Dothan?

I know the area is supposed to be weak when the storms arrive but what are the chances it uptrends?

Just Saying This Cause I’m Worried That Something May Happen And I Don’t Wanna Be Caught Off Guard


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Regardless if it does or not, I would definitely be watching this carefully. While areas the north may have issues with junk convection and moisture being cut off; the southern portions of AL do not normally have that problem. The soundings are quite nasty.
 
Arcc said:
Regardless if it does or not, I would definitely be watching this carefully. While areas the north may have issues with junk convection and moisture being cut off; the southern portions of AL do not normally have that problem. The soundings are quite nasty.
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Thanks I’ve been keeping up with the models and most have the action going away before it gets towards those areas I mentioned just was worried that they might shift it last second or something


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SegTindoProWx said:
Thanks I’ve been keeping up with the models and most have the action going away before it gets towards those areas I mentioned just was worried that they might shift it last second or something


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Just have to keep a warning source handy and have a plan. That's all you can do

I mean that tornado that hit the TV station in Orlando Monday was in a marginal risk... Level 1
 
SegTindoProWx said:
Thanks I’ve been keeping up with the models and most have the action going away before it gets towards those areas I mentioned just was worried that they might shift it last second or something


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A couple of key points on this is it's actually pretty rare to get a Day 3 Risk outlook with Moderate areas mentioned in them. The wording by many NOAA stations are pretty intense and for now the main things are to continue watching models for details on the systems progressions eastward. I wouldn't be shocked if that moderate area expands northward and eastward and a bullseye High appear in a smaller area in follow-up updates.
 
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malak05 said:
View attachment 171625

A couple of key points on this is it's actually pretty rare to get a Day 3 Risk outlook with Moderate areas mentioned in them. The wording by many NOAA stations are pretty intense and for now the main things are to continue watching models for details on the systems progressions eastward. I wouldn't be shocked if that moderate area expands northward and eastward and a bullseye High appear in a smaller area in follow-up updates.
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Me too honestly just looking out and making sure that it doesn’t shift over in my area


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The leading system will play a big role in Saturday. Wouldn't be shocked to see a remnant ofb or the mid level warm front along the southern Tennessee border Saturday morning. That may the catalyst for early initiation with some cells moving along the boundary and rotating while cells to the north may be more elevated. I would think that the best strong/long track tor potential would be S of that boundary squarely in the mod. I think it's a fair to question how quickly this becomes linear across Ms/Al, that is a lot of forcing moving in but it's a little slow..
 
Parker said:
They are definitely all banging the drum around here. We’ve already had some decent damage from the last two systems with gradient winds. We haven’t had a true Tornado outbreak in awhile around here. I bet we see a high risk if trends continue in southern Mississippi and SW central Alabama.
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A high risk is definitely incoming as this looks to be the biggest outbreak in over a decade for AL.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Pretty irresponsible....to be fair, I don't know who in the hell this guy is, but there's not even a fair comparison to 4.27.11...even in the analogs
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Brad Arnold is a met/storm chaser, whom recently got rear ended in the last severe weather event. He's very conservative when it comes to chase planning and last year, his success rate of chasing was exceptionally good.

He doesn't throw around outbreak words willy nilly.
 
SD said:
The leading system will play a big role in Saturday. Wouldn't be shocked to see a remnant ofb or the mid level warm front along the southern Tennessee border Saturday morning. That may the catalyst for early initiation with some cells moving along the boundary and rotating while cells to the north may be more elevated. I would think that the best strong/long track tor potential would be S of that boundary squarely in the mod. I think it's a fair to question how quickly this becomes linear across Ms/Al, that is a lot of forcing moving in but it's a little slow..
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That would be nothing but trouble for areas along and just south of it. A boundary from central Miss into AL is what made 4-27-2011 so bad. That's where all but 1 or 2 of that days' big supercells were.
 
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