Severe March 13-15 Central Upper South Severe Threat

[Rick]

What's NAM showing ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Any thoughts on the severe warned storm in northwest Ms? Looks like some rotation to me.

Yep

 

[Zander98al]

What's NAM showing ?

a lesser threat and slower. the faster HRRR would be more severe.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

a lesser threat and slower. the faster HRRR would be more severe.

HATE TO SAY IT BUT I THINK THE HRRR WILL BE THE BEST "THIS IS MY OPINION" IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSTANT THUS FAR

 

[Myfrotho704_]

HATE TO SAY IT BUT I THINK THE HRRR WILL BE THE BEST "THIS IS MY OPINION" IT HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSTANT THUS FAR

Hrrr was a little to aggressive for today and back in TX, I’d go with something in between the hrrr/NAM, hrrr has been aggressive with discrete activity lately only for it to fold a bit

 

[Rick]

Enhanced risk

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[HSVweather]

Tornado watch https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0023.html

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

ID BE WILLING TO BET THAT SHIFTS EAST TO COVER BHAM POSS SHELBY CO AL AND POINTS WEST

 

[Zander98al]

When do yall think the tornado watch will be issued here? I say by around 12 o clock

 

[Rick]

Socked in with clouds

 

[Arcc]

The NAM and WRF isnt impressed and neither am I. Both models show the best cape lagging the best wind fields and being in place when the upper level winds from 850mb to 500mb being unidirectional. If the cape can overspread the area faster we may have a slight threat, if not Im expecting something closer to the last event except with lower helicity. Probably a semi-linear line of storms.

 

[Zander98al]

We're in the watch and wait mode now. Lol focusing on models right now wont help us a whole lot just have to see what happens. North alabama is taking precautions though there already having a good bit of schools closing by 12:30 or 1

 

[Rick]

I think the threat is going down now

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The NAM and WRF isnt impressed and neither am I. Both models show the best cape lagging the best wind fields and being in place when the upper level winds from 850mb to 500mb being unidirectional. If the cape can overspread the area faster we may have a slight threat, if not Im expecting something closer to the last event except with lower helicity. Probably a semi-linear line of storms.

what I’m thinking, I don’t think this is going to be a big day, soundings do support damaging winds tho due to such dry air aloft/DCAPE

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Already a couple reports of Tornadoes, most notably in Kentucky near a NWS office I believe.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Already a couple reports of Tornadoes, most notably in Kentucky near a NWS office I believe.

Yeah, they got the best shear/BRN shear parameters rn, only with 500-750jkg of sfc CAPE, best shear is lifting north, they have a shot at a strong tornado

 

[SASQUATCH]

The NAM and WRF isnt impressed and neither am I. Both models show the best cape lagging the best wind fields and being in place when the upper level winds from 850mb to 500mb being unidirectional. If the cape can overspread the area faster we may have a slight threat, if not Im expecting something closer to the last event except with lower helicity. Probably a semi-linear line of storms.

Yeah, yesterday I noticed the helicity values over Alabama specifically were lacking or non-existent for our time frame. I wouldn't let my guard down (Usually there is always a rogue surprise in these setups) but I would consider this a low-end tornado event for most of Alabama (Just my opinion).

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Darklordsuperstorm]

70/60 at my location so far dewpoint is staying in low 60s.