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Severe March 13-15 Central Upper South Severe Threat

Sounding from Eastern central NC tommorow, nothing crazy but there is steep low level lapse rates and a little inverted V and a little mid level drying, storms will probably have some gusty/damaging winds and small hail with this look79E561DA-CA1A-465F-96C9-445601A3FAF8.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Sounding from Eastern central NC tommorow, nothing crazy but there is steep low level lapse rates and a little inverted V and a little mid level drying, storms will probably have some gusty/damaging winds and small hail with this lookView attachment 17800
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HRRR is pretty excited about getting storms around here today. Nothing else is

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Snowflowxxl said:
Soothing rain to fall asleep to, at the end of a long weather day. Hope we can manage a couple rumbles of thunder before I go knockout. Prayers for all affected by the storms today!
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We did have a severe thunderstorm warning from one of the remnant cells out of AL around 1:30pm this morning, although there seemed to be more bark than bite.
 
Will be watching closely here in Wake county this afternoon. Hrrr has a cluster of semi-discreet cells moving up into some semi-unstable air.

Hrrr only has 500-800 ML cape across central NC (a few dots of 1000). That is the limiting factor right now. If we see that cape climb above that this afternoon then there will definitely be a legit chance of a very brief spin up or two.
 
Weird inverted V soundings aswell with some areas up to a 20 degree difference between the sfc dew point and the sfc temp, damaging winds seem somewhat likely especially with the storms that take on a linear storm mode, Hodos are more straight supporting linear convection aswell
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Weird inverted V soundings aswell with some areas up to a 20 degree difference between the sfc dew point and the sfc temp, damaging winds seem somewhat likely especially with the storms that take on a linear storm mode, Hodos are more straight supporting linear convection aswell
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This is also confirmed by HRRR. Storms will quickly become cluster/liner in fashion. Will be an interesting day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a brief spin up this afternoon. Main threat today will be wind.

Sky has plenty of crud in it this morning but I can see blue across a large portion.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Weird inverted V soundings aswell with some areas up to a 20 degree difference between the sfc dew point and the sfc temp, damaging winds seem somewhat likely especially with the storms that take on a linear storm mode, Hodos are more straight supporting linear convection aswell
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Sounding indicative of possible downburst (dry air entrainment)? Also slight curve to the hodo, nothing significant but possible quick spin up? Still trying to figure out these severe weather soundings...

sounding.png
 
Well looks like the tornado was down when it came close to my house. A half a mile down the road and trees are down and tin has been ripped off barns. The very defined track continues to the SW with 511 coming into Goodwater still closed due to trees and power lines. One of the firefighters in a Goodwater said he hasn't seen any house damage in Goodwater, but heard there was some close to Stewartville. Based on what I saw probably EF0, but it was weakening on radar as it passed my place.
 
Clanton tornado that moved east into coosa county rated EF-1; per NWS via Spann.
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Looks like a line of showers/storms is forming in/ south of CLT tho
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Not surprising as they have seen the best heating and instability so far today

Mesoscale Discussion 221< Previous MD
mcd0221.gif

Mesoscale Discussion 0221
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Areas affected...the central Carolinas into southeast Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151936Z - 152200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage should gradually increase over the next few
hours, and a few may produce locally strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Heating has contributed to around 500 J/kg MUCAPE from
GA into SC, with lesser values northeastward into VA. This zone of
relatively warm air exists in advance of a cold front, now moving
into central GA and across the western Carolinas where a band of
precipitation exists ahead of the front.

Visible imagery show increasing CU fields as well as a few weak
thunderstorms along the front especially from GA into SC where
heating is strongest. Forecast soundings show a warm layer below 700
mb which is likely contributing to slow storm growth.

As heating persists, a few strong storms are expected to develop.
Generally long, straight hodographs suggest cellular activity, but
mixed storm mode is possible as well with line segments. Given
southwesterly 850 mb winds of 35-45 kt, some storms may produce
marginally severe wind gusts. Small hail cannot be ruled out with
the strongest cores.
 
Im watching that cluster coming out of SC. That seemed to be the area the HRRR was hitting on

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