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Severe March 13-15 Central Upper South Severe Threat

Allergies says I can’t sleep so why not look at these soundings tommorow in TX/NM :)
These storms are gonna have some giant hail with them, not to often you see such a fat hail growth zone, low freezing levels and bulk shear to help hail develop, 2nd one is concerning when it comes to tornadoes, these soundings support violent/explosive updraft development, might see a strong tornado tommorow, gonna be some good structure with some LP supercells that develop in NM
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Could see some strong tornadoes today, hrrrE is very high with tornado probabilities, many models point to discrete supercells between 20-00z, I don’t see why there wouldn’t be a few wedges
 
Well there's been a tornado confirmed south of Carlsbad, NM, and that storm also has a history of hail that is up to 2" in diameter.

Edit: Here's a picture of that tornado:

 
Here is the current warned storm
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Baseball sized hail possible with this one:

HAZARD...Tornado and baseball size hail.

The tornado warning is for Southeastern Lea/Southwestern Andrews/Northern Winkler counties in far SE NM and south Texas.
 
Well go crazy then 3km....
Soundings support supercells all the way towards Detroit, look at those supercells tho on sim radar, I forgot where you live @SoutheastRidge but be weather aware Thursday, I know you live somewhere around these storms, shouldn’t be strong tornadoes or anything to crazy but supercells shown like this is concerning
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So looking at the 12z NAM and following the trends the Sigtor and storm perimeters have slowly been ticking better farther east into AL past few runs and now the latest run even throws out a modest threat sounding for bordering West GA counties should be interesting to watch next few runs.

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the hrrr 12z it shows supercells popping up over alabama around 6 or 7 oclock. Ready to see what 18z shows
 
Yea tomorrow will be covering a lot of ground affecting many people. Ohio Valley and the Southeast could both see enhanced risk out of this. I've been so busy the past few days, havent been able to analyze it like I like to.
 
Cips analog guidance shows the majority of severe reports happening over Tennessee and places south for tomorrow in setups similar to this one.
 
This soundings does support isolated tornadoes at the onset then quickly switches to damaging winds, your getting strong winds aloft which would mix down to the ground with t-storms combined with dry air entrainment which would create decent negative buoyancy also with t-storms which means stronger downdrafts, I’d be concerned for damaging winds with a sounding like this, Downdraft CAPE argues that aswell
4DF3C503-CC82-42CB-B361-9F07F3630B8E.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This soundings does support isolated tornadoes at the onset then quickly switches to damaging winds, your getting strong winds aloft which would mix down to the ground with t-storms combined with dry air entrainment which would create decent negative buoyancy also with t-storms which means stronger downdrafts, I’d be concerned for damaging winds with a sounding like this, Downdraft CAPE argues that aswell
View attachment 17721
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Where's that sounding located at?
 
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