STILL LOOKING LIKE A THREAT AND EVEN JUICIER THEN BEFORE FROM WHAT IM SEEEING ON THE GFS RUNS
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Severe March 13-15 Central Upper South Severe Threat
- Thread starter Webberweather53
- Start date
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- severe weather
WELL STILL GOT THE SW NEG TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF OK/TX REGION
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Yep good stuff, exactly why this threat could still be pretty nasty, looks like instability may be limited atm, hope it could stay down as this system will likely have extreme wind energy
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Interesting soundings, this is from central Tennessee, this supports low topped supercells/hslc storms, very steep llvl lapses and very large 3CAPE, large helicity, ok curved hodo, sfc dews are a little dry but it’s enough, this one should be interesting 
Drscottsmith
Member
Can someone point me in the direction of a resource to learn how to read this graphic? It looks like a TREMENDOUS amount of data and I would like to better understand it. I recognize some things, but not all.
Thank you.
I think this is a good place to start:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/learning-about-weather-soundings-h5-etc.536/
And welcome aboard!
Concerning sounding from northern TN/KY border, again this screams low topped convection, with large hail and some tornadoes, with low top convection you can have a little bit less of things due to a smaller updraft but we still got lots lots of wind energy anyways, note that very large 3CAPE, would allow for explosive initial updraft growth, along with steep low level lapse rates, and decently steep mid level lapses, based of LCL cloud bases would be decently low, one thing tho is that sfc dews are pretty low, typically tornadoes like 65+ dews but tornadoes can definitely still happen with dews lower than that, hodo is very large and decently curved, looks like there is a little vb in there, and maybe it has a bit of a look that says some linear convection
Z
Zander98al
Guest
You think anything will form down further south? Im waiting for the 3k nam to get in range to see what it says.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Probably a slight risk type day. Nothing crazy, but stay weather aware for sure.
I honestly think this day has more potential, this setup lacks junk or crapvection atm, low topped supercells can be as bad as there taller counterparts, in fact low topped supercells does not need as much instability or shear as a taller one would, with this sounding there is very steep low level lapse rates along with strong 3CAPE, decent mid level lapses and a decent dew point although like I said it’s a little low, strong veering winds, good amounts of helicity, dry air aloft along with DCAPE to aid in strong downdrafts, in my opinion this could be worse than last system, storms last system struggled with low sfc based cape/CIN and relying on more MUcape allowing them to be a little more elevated in nature, this is a sounding from southern Missouri, btw this was the 18z
I think this threat appears better for areas north of the SE tho
tennessee storm
Member
When we roll into april... instability wont be a problem for these systems ... we should start tapping moisture from the Caribbean origin....
Agree, Also, new NAM took the threat south aswell, and yeah I feel like we’ll get that cool down mid-late March then unfortunately pick back up on severe wx
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Holy sh*t I did not know parameters were that crazy in TX tommorow
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yea man the HRRR goes nuts with supercells in New Mexico. Think the SPC only has 2% tornado also lol
Look at that big hail growth zone !?, that supports huge hail, I wouldn’t wanna go chasing in that, those supercells will be mean tommorow even if they don’t produce much tornadoes
Snowflowxxl
Member
