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Tropical Major Hurricane Teddy

Teddy wanted a special advisory too

...TEDDY RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A 90-MPH HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 48.7W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES
 
Possible fly in the ointments I’m seeing 1) going over cooler waters from Hurricane Paulette could limit intensity and trend west as a result 2) Sally moving offshore SC and making a new storm could change the track 3) trough slings Teddy into east coast could include a significant area given its so far out 4) Gulf Stream influences 5) shear 6) energy from sally is absorbed by Teddy
 
Please tell me the 12Z GFS doesn’t have Teddy moving slowly W at 120 underneath a blocking NE high. Enough is enough this season!

E17449CD-A022-42EC-BC63-5CAC74484164.png

It will still recurve but will it catch some of the NE on the way out?

Edit: It looks like it won’t.
 
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GaWx said:
Please tell me the 12Z GFS doesn’t have Teddy moving slowly W at 120 underneath a blocking NE high. Enough is enough this season!

View attachment 48783

It will still recurve but will it catch some of the NE on the way out?

Edit: It looks like it won’t.
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Too many more changes and NC north may have to start keeping a closer look on it. It should still recurve but the trends need to stop now because of they continue well that would just be all 2020 wouldnt it.

Wonder how the G4 missions are playing into these changes?
 
Shaggy said:
Too many more changes and NC north may have to start keeping a closer look on it. It should still recurve but the trends need to stop now because of they continue well that would just be all 2020 wouldnt it.

Wonder how the G4 missions are playing into these changes?
Click to expand...
I think it still recurves but we've also seen this movie before.... definitely not writing it off yet that's for sure
 
Shaggy said:
Too many more changes and NC north may have to start keeping a closer look on it. It should still recurve but the trends need to stop now because of they continue well that would just be all 2020 wouldnt it.

Wonder how the G4 missions are playing into these changes?
Click to expand...

The good news, assuming Teddy will stay away, is that with the trend of a closer Teddy, the home grown activity that had been showing up just off the SE coast seems to have diminished on many recent runs. I’m assuming that’s because of Teddy’s closer proximity.
 
metwannabe said:
I think it still recurves but we've also seen this movie before.... definitely not writing it off yet that's for sure
Click to expand...

Yeah but if it isnt that far north to begin with we have problems in NC I think, it reminds me of Florence in that way the storm stayed WNW and NW and never took that NNW turn the models had as it headed west at least not for long and ended up ducking a couple of troughs even though the models maintained the recurve OTS track.... she also went from a major back down to a TS and was actually pushed SW for a while but still....

Still over the next day or three it needs to stay on the far left side or even out of that track to be a legit concern...
 
Shaggy said:
I wont get concerned until we start seeing individual ensemble members bailing out on the recurve. If that never happens then all is well.
Click to expand...

Yeah until the ens start having members approaching or hitting the east coast down this way I wont worry to much.....that said the NHC has it moving NNW pretty hard the next few days and as the eye gets better defined it appears to be left of track...
 
Downeastnc said:
Yeah until the ens start having members approaching or hitting the east coast down this way I wont worry to much.....that said the NHC has it moving NNW pretty hard the next few days and as the eye gets better defined it appears to be left of track...
Click to expand...

Yeah even thenthe high is just so progressive I dont see it pushing him this far west. Still time for things to change and I hope they're flying as many G4 missions as possible to get the best data ingested as possible.

Is there any section of US coastine that hasnt been under some sort of tropical weather advisory this year?
 
Screen-Shot-2020-09-16-at-2-57-14-PM.png
 
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