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Tropical Major Hurricane Teddy

Ollie Williams

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I mean if that big ridge is moving east a bit faster then maybe Teddy is gonna get further west than forecast...
View attachment 48532
It's interesting to note that Teddy continues to move further westward on the models. It breaks the trough on the GFS. gfs_z500a_atl_fh186_trend.gif
 
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Henry2326

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What would really change the game is if this center relocation tonthe SW allows him to stay more WNW for a while before turning. Long shots and unlikely but this wasnt an insignificant move to the west.
Teddy leaves something behind with High over northeast.....and its headed west.....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_14_15_46_16_528.jpg
 

GaWx

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For Teddy: This 12Z EPS, out to 240, gets a few members close to the NE US!

 

GaWx

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Strong members too
Later, most of those close members either hit, skim, or just miss the NE US.

I believe that the closer Teddy comes to the US, the lower the chance of homebrew off the SE coast next week.
 

GaWx

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The 12z ICON gets extremely close to the NE due to a trough, and a stronger ridge to the NE.View attachment 48652View attachment 48653
Although the ICON is far from the best model (look at how bad it did with 94L in NC...it was the worst model for that), a NE US scare or even actual hit can’t at all be ruled out as even some EPS members have shown hits there.
 

Henry2326

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Although the ICON is far from the best model (look at how bad it did with 94L in NC...it was the worst model for that), a NE US hit can’t at all be ruled out as even some EPS members have shown hits there.
But....it did rather well for Laura, when no other models were picking it up....this is what I've been worried about. The models are never precise in movement of the highs.....a little window can make a big dfference.
 

Ollie Williams

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But....it did rather well for Laura, when no other models were picking it up....
I think the Icon overamplifies storms, therefore showing signals of development. For example, I remember it showing Isaias in the mid-960's. 94L into a tropical storm, laura developing etc.
 

Henry2326

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I think, as typical, the ridge is going to be weaker than modeled and we get an east coast storm.....just me thinking out loud.....or I'm paranoid. Could be either or both....
 

Henry2326

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Looks like the Euro is running slower than the NHC graph as 11 am today. Last point for NHC is 8 am Sunday. Euro for same point looks like 12z Saturday.....

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_15_15_19_30_076.jpg

ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_15_15_19_15_810.jpg
 
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