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Tropical Major Hurricane Teddy

lexxnchloe said:
I saw where the euro also shows a very big ridge and that is why we still need to watch
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In my opinion if Renee was not there to help weaken the Ridge then this would have been a very serious threat to the East Coast but as it stands as long as she hangs out as a Remnant low it should help to recurve TD 20
 
Henry2326 said:
12z Icon......stutters in place at the end of the run......


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Even though the ICON is not the best model (for example, it did the worst with 94L), this is the kind of thing that keeps me at about a 95% chance of OTS instead of near 100% as it is too soon to do so, especially considering the complexities of the pattern and that is is La Niña. Regarding this ICON run, one has to wonder if at least a short term WNW move would have soon started after this near stall considering that massive 1036 mb NE US high would be traversing to the north of it along with probably at least a short lived upper ridge building back in.
 
GaWx said:
Even though the ICON is not the best model (for example, it did the worst with 94L), this is the kind of thing that keeps me at about a 95% chance of OTS instead of near 100% as it is too soon to do so, especially considering the complexities of the pattern and that is is La Niña. Regarding this ICON run, one has to wonder if at least a short term WNW move would have soon started after this near stall considering that massive 1036 mb NE US high would be traversing to the north of it along with probably at least a short lived upper ridge building back in.
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I agree.....about the time I'm ready to ditch it, the model finds a subtle idea that the rest are not seeing......moments of brilliance
 
GaWx said:
Even though the ICON is not the best model (for example, it did the worst with 94L), this is the kind of thing that keeps me at about a 95% chance of OTS instead of near 100% as it is too soon to do so, especially considering the complexities of the pattern and that is is La Niña. Regarding this ICON run, one has to wonder if at least a short term WNW move would have soon started after this near stall considering that massive 1036 mb NE US high would be traversing to the north of it along with probably at least a short lived upper ridge building back in.
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I'd think there would be a couple of ensemble members at least hinting at that possibility and there just isnt much there. IMO we either see a wholesale change to the pattern and a full shift in track philosophy or this happens exactly as currently forecast.
 
@GaWx looking at the 18z gfs I think the only way we see any change to the track idea is if that trough is more east to west oriented so it stalls Teddy out. The the high would need to anchor as the trough weakened.

Just don't see that happening.
 
Shaggy said:
@GaWx looking at the 18z gfs I think the only way we see any change to the track idea is if that trough is more east to west oriented so it stalls Teddy out. The the high would need to anchor as the trough weakened.

Just don't see that happening.
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Does this get closer to what you have in mind?

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Shaggy said:
I'd think you want the high centered more off of the NE coast versus down over NC and the ridge axis to be east west and further east........that's just to stall itand keep it from following Paulette. Sort of like this.
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Same day, 9/23, GFS gets closer but doesn't anchor......
ScreenshotCapture_2020_09_13_19_50_37_423.jpg
 
Icon is coming in just a touch east of 18z. If that trough off the east coast can lift and weaken and leave 20 behind then that could get interesting but still just a loooooong shot
 
Gfs is a bit west of 18z. ICON was close to shutting the door as that big 1040 HP moved off the New England coast.
 
This is shaping up to be a very powerful hurricane in a few days

Best Track update has Teddy likely at 5am, 3 weeks ahead of 2005

hwrf_satIR_20L_17.png
 
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I'm just waking up after a 2 hour nap after my 13 hour shift lastnight. Checking the gefs does it seem more active west of Bermuda uda to anyone else or do I need to wake up better next time before checking models
 
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