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Tropical Major Hurricane Teddy

ForsythSnow

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3. A tropical wave is located a few hundred miles southeast of the
Cabo Verde Islands and is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is
forecast, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the
next few days while the system moves generally westward across the
eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 

Brent

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GFS coming in hot very bad for Puerto Rico

It looks like it may recurve east of the US though in the later frames gfs_z500_mslp_watl_31.png
 
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GaWx

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0Z has overall had a pretty decent trend back away from a CONUS threat (though not necessarily a tuna since the GFS hits the NE Caribbean hard followed possibly by Bermuda) with a well OTS ICON, CMC, and UKMET and GFS recurving along 72W.

Let's see what the King and his men says later as well as the GEFS.

But the 0Z is only one run and It could easily shift back the other way on the next run(s). It really is amazing how many twists and turns there have been with 95L!
 

GaWx

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Euro is a recurve again even east of the islands the GFS hits
0Z EPS: Whereas more than half the members recurved E of 70W, unfortunately ~25% of the members went into or very near the Caribbean and at least threatened the CONUS. :(
 

GaWx

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Today at 12Z overall the pre-Euro consensus looks encouraging as far as the CONUS not even getting close to being hit. Even the 12Z GEFS has most members missing, similar to 6Z and much less threatening than the 18Z and 0Z runs. Also, out of 21 members, it still has 2 FL hits (10% of members) with one of those also hitting GA (5%), 1 NC hit (5%), and 2 NE US hits (10%). I count about 4 (20%) of the 21 members as solid hits in addition to a few scrapes or near misses. So, despite the good trends, this implies there’s still enough of a chance for the CONUS to be hit to keep a very watchful eye there, especially because there have been many wild swings back and forth.

Now time for the King and his men.
 

metwannabe

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I wouldn't write this one off tbh if the trough around d6-10 misses it we are in deep
Interesting with the 12z Euro is it develops 96L, which later turns east and creates a weakness that may help spare the coast from 95L... so much going on, it's mind boggling. Lol
 

GaWx

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Interesting with the 12z Euro is it develops 96L, which later turns east and creates a weakness that may help spare the coast from 95L... so much going on, it's mind boggling. Lol

Yep, the 12Z Euro like the 0Z is a way OTS recurve.

At this point based on the model trends today and when considering the climo in mid Sept of TCs with a likely genesis in the MDR east of 40W, as a betting man I’d take the no CONUS hit bet laying odds as high as 3 to 1. That’s even taking La Niña climo into account. But I wouldn’t lay odds any higher right now due to just enough uncertainty still existing, especially considering the wild model consensus jumps of the last few days.
 

GaWx

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Whereas the 0Z EPS had ~1/4 of its members threatening the Caribbean and/or Bahamas/US, the 12Z has about half that doing the same or ~1/8 threatening those areas. So, now I can say that the entire 12Z suite of models is implying less of a threat to the Caribbean, CONUS, and Bahamas than before. But those areas are still far from getting the all clear at this very early stage, especially considering the other tropical features that increase unpredictability, the wild model swings that have occurred, it being La Niña, and with no LLC yet identified.
 
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BHS1975

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6z ICON goes deep south after splitting it with 500mb high building back after P recurves.




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GaWx

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18Z GEFS is at about the same threat to the CONUS as is the 12Z with 4 H landfalls out of 21 members (~20%):

- 2 S FL on 9/21
- 2 at/near FL Panhandle 9/26
 

Downeastnc

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6z ICON goes deep south after splitting it with 500mb high building back after P recurves.




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A weaker system does tend to stay south and west in these setups......right now its not looking like its in a hurry to get organized.
 

Shaggy

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The blown forecast of Rene is the key to getting 95L on the early recurve.

Rene was origanally to become a hurricane with a pretty quick exit out to the north. With this new forecast track it's a sloppy Rene that keeps that ridge weakness in place.
 

SD

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The Euro almost was a total storm cancel and goes straight north basically

It's all over the place
Yeah the atlantic is sort of a mess. The extended monsoon trough, poleward amplified atlantic ridge, retrograding cutoff near the azores, 2 existing systems, troughs exiting the US are all feeding into some wild looking stuff and run to run inconsistency. Given the overall setup I wouldn't discount something trying to sneak under the troughs and get close to the US in the long term but who knows if it would be this system
 

Brent

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Teddy?

Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that the
area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity is also becoming better organized.
If this development trend continues, then a tropical depression
will likely form later today or tonight. The system is expected to
move westward then northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
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