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Tropical Major Hurricane Teddy

18Z GEFS is at about the same threat to the CONUS as is the 12Z with 4 H landfalls out of 21 members (~20%):

- 2 S FL on 9/21
- 2 at/near FL Panhandle 9/26
 
6z ICON goes deep south after splitting it with 500mb high building back after P recurves.

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A weaker system does tend to stay south and west in these setups......right now its not looking like its in a hurry to get organized.
 
The blown forecast of Rene is the key to getting 95L on the early recurve.

Rene was origanally to become a hurricane with a pretty quick exit out to the north. With this new forecast track it's a sloppy Rene that keeps that ridge weakness in place.
 
The Euro almost was a total storm cancel and goes straight north basically

It's all over the place
Yeah the atlantic is sort of a mess. The extended monsoon trough, poleward amplified atlantic ridge, retrograding cutoff near the azores, 2 existing systems, troughs exiting the US are all feeding into some wild looking stuff and run to run inconsistency. Given the overall setup I wouldn't discount something trying to sneak under the troughs and get close to the US in the long term but who knows if it would be this system
 
Teddy?

Satellite imagery and satellite-derived wind data indicate that the
area of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands has become better defined. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity is also becoming better organized.
If this development trend continues, then a tropical depression
will likely form later today or tonight. The system is expected to
move westward then northwestward across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
 
00z Icon.....Am I seeing things? It looks like Rene crosses in front of soon to be Teddy, and Teddy begins to move even more west than north......

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00z Icon.....Am I seeing things? It looks like Rene crosses in front of soon to be Teddy, and Teddy begins to move even more west than north......

View attachment 48422

Yeah but with that trough coming off the east coast it can only go so far west. However this is a change from previous runs so we need to see if any other guidance jumps on board
 
Well the euro finally sees the storm so kw we see what it does with a developed system versus nothing. Still looking recurve bound.
 
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