Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Disney World is still open throughout the hurricane. Holy hell.

They are closing tomorrow afternoon.

 

[Sctvman]

Looking better for Tampa but now Port Charlotte may be under the massive surge gun

View attachment 152978

Fort Myers and Southwest FL still recovering from Ian and this would be terrible for them. And a little north with Sarasota/Bradenton being heavily populated. Sarasota/Bradenton/Port Charlotte have over a million people in those 3 counties

 

[Belle Lechat]

Disney World is still open throughout the hurricane. Holy hell.

https://disneyworld.disney.go.com/experience-updates/weather-updates/

 

[Philstorm91]

It's come down slightly on the winds. 160 mph, 915 mb.

 

[RBR71]

Im way away from the future effected areas but why the southern trends with such a strong storm. Is the high that strong?

Trough diving in but to be fair, I think globals have it further north still around Tampa. They handled Helene track better so we shall see, definitely NE movement now, all about timing now

 

[Belle Lechat]

They removed the center line.

 

[RBR71]

They removed the center line.


View attachment 152984

You mean this line?

 

[itryatmanysportsespgolf70]

Milton will weaken very little with warm water temps and not much to weaken it imo

 

[Belle Lechat]

You mean this line?

View attachment 152985

I just saw the tab button for it.

Adding content, no one posted this earlier?

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

00Z ICON is the worst case scenario. Right into Tampa Bay. We're going to have the globals VS hurricane-adjusted ensembles battle 2.0

 

[RBR71]

00Z ICON is the worst case scenario. Right into Tampa Bay. We're going to have the globals VS hurricane-adjusted ensembles battle 2.0
View attachment 152986

Yep, once again we see globals diverge from other models. They tend to resolve upper air features better so Tampa not in the clear yet that's for sure

 

[jrips27]

00Z ICON is the worst case scenario. Right into Tampa Bay. We're going to have the globals VS hurricane-adjusted ensembles battle 2.0

Just saw the 11pm track and yeah I’m having flashbacks to 2 weeks ago. NHC seems to be following those tropical models again and man that makes me nervous

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Just saw the 11pm track and yeah I’m having flashbacks to 2 weeks ago. NHC seems to be following those tropical models again and man that makes me nervous

ICON and the 3K NAM have essentially identical tracks FWIW.

 

[BHS1975]

HRRR has it going just south of TB.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

Low-level Water Vapor

GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic - Band 10 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

 

[severestorm]

Low-level Water Vapor

GOES-19 - Sector view: Tropical Atlantic - Band 10 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

Near real-time publication of GOES-East and GOES-West images from NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov

The PRE is doing a job of keeping the dry air from the center IMO or might be looking at it wrong.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

It doesn't turn like a disk but like a bundt cake.

 

[jeremyt]

They are closing tomorrow afternoon.

Are the waffle houses closing is the real question!

 

[jrips27]

Are the waffle houses closing is the real question!

 

[Belle Lechat]

Are the waffle houses closing is the real question!

 

[Mason Dixon]

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Northern eyewall into Tampa Bay.

 

[jrips27]

Northern eyewall into Tampa Bay.

Did look ever so slightly south of 18z

 

[jrips27]

Nailbiter to the end for Tampa/St. Pete. The wobbles will be the difference

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

A little bit of good news. The GFS punches in the drier air into the core earlier than its recent runs.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

NOT SURE HOW TO TAKE THIS..

FROM THE 10 PM DISCUSSION FROM THE NHC.. REF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA

 

[HDGator]

Northern eyewall into Tampa Bay.
View attachment 152993

Not seeing that march down the coast as we've seen with the early adjusted models today. Both the Icon and GFS have held ground on Tampa Bay. The all clear calls for Tampa appear to be premature. We'll see what the Euro brings.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Did look ever so slightly south of 18z

Looked a tic north to me. The next frame after landfall had a bit more latitude. In any case, it's north of the pasta suite.

 

[jeremyt]

A little bit of good news. The GFS punches in the drier air into the core earlier than its recent runs.
View attachment 152995

That would be great but I don't see it downgrading to a 2 at landfall. I hope im wrong and if so Ill be you dinner/supper!

 

[jrips27]

Looked a tic north to me. The next frame after landfall had a bit more latitude. In any case, it's north of the pasta suite.

Yeah, splitting hairs for sure. Interested to see the GEFS and then Euro

 

[Ross]

Nailbiter to the end for Tampa/St. Pete. The wobbles will be the difference
View attachment 152994

i'm unsure if it's gaining enough latitude right now to support this track

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

NOT SURE HOW TO TAKE THIS..

FROM THE 10 PM DISCUSSION FROM THE NHC.. REF THE HIGHLIGHTED AREA
View attachment 152996

They aren't going down with the tracker track this go-round.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

That would be great but I don't see it downgrading to a 2 at landfall. I hope im wrong and if so Ill be you dinner/supper!

I don't either. I'm just pointing out this is the first run in some time that the GFS dried out the southern half of the circulation at landfall.

 

[jeremyt]

I don't either. I'm just pointing out this is the first run in some time that the GFS dried out the southern half of the circulation at landfall.

Understood!

 

[Arcc]

Definitely can see the shear north of the system on WV and IR.

 

[jrips27]

i'm unsure if it's gaining enough latitude right now to support this track

I agree with you. Needs to be moving almost Northeast according to that and on satellite it sure looks like ENE

 

[Ross]

I agree with you. Needs to be moving almost Northeast according to that and on satellite it sure looks like ENE

speak of the devil its wobbling north

best to just go to bed

 

[Belle Lechat]