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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

this is just my personal opinion but none of these models have done a good job as far as strength goes. This thing has really blown most out of them out of the water and has been stronger than even the lowest hurricane models. There will be weakening on approach but I think we are really underestimating just how strong and resilient this thing is going to be to dry air and shear.
 
iGRXY said:
this is just my personal opinion but none of these models have done a good job as far as strength goes. This thing has really blown most out of them out of the water and has been stronger than even the lowest hurricane models. There will be weakening on approach but I think we are really underestimating just how strong and resilient this thing is going to be to dry air and shear.
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Yeah don’t see this thing getting hurt to much by little dry air on its approach towards Florida …. Waters are like bath water also ,easily seeing a 140. 145 mph type cane at Landfall
 
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SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 86.9W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...902 MB...26.64 INCHES
 
FortMillSCWx said:
I consider myself a reasonably intelligent person, but still trying to figure out ACE and this helped ...not! :) "The ACE index is calculated using the formula ACE = 10-4Σv2, where v is the estimated sustained maximum wind speed in knots. The resulting figure is divided by 10,000 to make it more manageable"
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Here are some round guidelines you can go by that are based on that formula:

ACE per 24 hrs
-TD: 0
-TS: 0.5-1.5
-Cat 1: 1.5-2.5
-Cat 2: 2.5-3.5
-Cat 3: 4-5
-Cat 4: 5.5-7
-Cat 5: 8+
 
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I know it's throwing flags, but you don't see this every day.
Each reading is 30 seconds apart.

001700 2303N 08702W 7508 02258 9722 +159 +173 354093 096 /// /// 05
001730 2303N 08700W 7514 02210 9678 +157 +174 354101 104 /// /// 05
001800 2304N 08658W 7511 02155 9605 +166 +177 356110 114 /// /// 05
001830 2304N 08656W 7511 02073 9514 +169 +184 354119 122 /// /// 05
001900 2304N 08654W 7500 01946 9369 +172 +193 347116 125 /// /// 05
001930 2304N 08652W 7504 01805 9210 +205 +198 348077 103 /// /// 05
002000 2304N 08650W 7516 01730 9115 +254 +199 347028 057 /// /// 03
 
I'd give Milton another 6 to 9 hours before we see another ERC occur given the pressure changes, eye down to 9 miles again, and microwave imagery building up again outside the eyewall. Whether this will shred the storm or give it enough time afterwards has yet to be seen but I'd be concerned if the dry air can't get deep into the storm by landfall.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd give Milton another 6 to 9 hours before we see another ERC occur given the pressure changes, eye down to 9 miles again, and microwave imagery building up again outside the eyewall. Whether this will shred the storm or give it enough time afterwards has yet to be seen but I'd be concerned if the dry air can't get deep into the storm by landfall.
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Wasn't there one storm that completely walled off the Dry air upon landfall and barely weakened? I think there was one, but can't remember the name of it.
 
severestorm said:
Wasn't there one storm that completely walled off the Dry air upon landfall and barely weakened? I think there was one, but can't remember the name of it.
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It's that blob to the NE of the storm I'm more worried about continuing to reinforce what is lost on the W side as it pulls north. A lot of that may fade but it still has a good moisture feed, which is likely what made it blow back up after almost losing its eyewall earlier on satellite. The ERC speed seems fast with this storm too.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'd give Milton another 6 to 9 hours before we see another ERC occur given the pressure changes, eye down to 9 miles again, and microwave imagery building up again outside the eyewall. Whether this will shred the storm or give it enough time afterwards has yet to be seen but I'd be concerned if the dry air can't get deep into the storm by landfall.
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I’ve tracking the water vapor images for the last few hours and despite all the dry air to the north and west of the storm it’s just showing no signs of effecting any time soon. The outflow is still about perfect to the north and west.
 
iGRXY said:
this is just my personal opinion but none of these models have done a good job as far as strength goes. This thing has really blown most out of them out of the water and has been stronger than even the lowest hurricane models. There will be weakening on approach but I think we are really underestimating just how strong and resilient this thing is going to be to dry air and shear.
Click to expand...
It typically seems strength forecasting for hurricanes is one of the things NWP struggles the most with.
 
FROM WAHT IM SEEING ON LATEST MICROWAVE AS SOON AS IT GETS CLOSE TO THE 23N LAT MARKER THE EYE IS TRYING TO CLOSE OFFScreenshot 2024-10-08 204734.png
 
Im way away from the future effected areas but why the southern trends with such a strong storm. Is the high that strong?
 
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