Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

[RoddyPiper]

The tornado outbreak might be the big story with this when it's all over.

That may absolutely end up being accurate. I’m not knowledgeable enough speak on it, but I’m wondering if the expansion of the wind field from Milton is fueling the updrafts inland….essentially energy transfer away from Milton and into its outer bands. Anyone?

 

[deltadog03]

so many tornado warnings out there right now. wow, I feel like I am in the SE or midwest today.

 

[GaWx]

To put the latest intensity of 944 mb into better perspective for the area, the 1921 cat 3 Tarpon Springs storm that passed just N of Tampa Bay had a landfall there at 952 mb.

 

[JimRussell]

this ongoing tornado outbreak is something I have never seen

 

[Downeastnc]

The last eyewall pass by recon had surface winds way down...about to get another eye pass.

 

[Henry2326]

To put the latest intensity of 944 mb into better perspective for the area, the 1921 cat 3 Tarpon Springs storm that passed just N of Tampa Bay had a landfall there at 952 mb.

Interesting.....the hwrf posted 950ish at Tarpon Springs multiple times this week.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Given the recent motion of Milton, I fail to see how it doesn't landfall by 8 PM if not sooner.

 

[GaWx]

Given the recent motion of Milton, I fail to see how it doesn't landfall by 8 PM if not sooner.

The earlier the landfall, the better it may be for highest water levels? I wonder about that because the tide would be a little lower. We just passed a low tide.

 

[SD]

That may absolutely end up being accurate. I’m not knowledgeable enough speak on it, but I’m wondering if the expansion of the wind field from Milton is fueling the updrafts inland….essentially energy transfer away from Milton and into its outer bands. Anyone?

I think the W to NW shear is increasing the rotation in these supercells

 

[GaWx]

From another BB a few minutes ago:

“17 active TOR warnings, with several being not too far south of Orlando.”

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The earlier the landfall, the better it may be for highest water levels? I wonder about that because the tide would be a little lower. We just passed a low tide.

I was thinking of this too. There is only something on the order of 2' of range in that part of the world if memory serves. And, the onshore flow for the Tampa area will come later in the evening as the astronomical tide is coming in. Another fly in the ointment is if this faster forward speed holds, the storm will beat the worst of the westerly shear approaching the storm as we speak and along with coastal convergence, the opportunity for further weakening before landfall or perhaps even some unexpected modest strengthening can not be rules out.

In short, I tend to think whatever advantage of having landfall before high tide is negated by a stronger storm.

 

[Arcc]

Banding in the CDO is disappearing on IR, makes me think extratropical transition has began.

 

[GaWx]

Banding in the CDO is disappearing on IR, makes me think extratropical transition has began.

3PM NHC update: 948 mb, up from 944 mb at 2PM update. Not unexpected.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

It won't be long before hurricane force gust are seen along a large portion of the Florida coast.

 

[Arcc]

Banding in the CDO is disappearing on IR, makes me think extratropical transition has began.

Pretty much confirms my thinking, along with radar from KTBW. Not really much of an “eyewall” per say because the winds have really spread out.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The pasta suite has shifted northward from 12Z Not surprising given the current observations.

 

[GaWx]

lexx’s 110 landfall prog is lowest of the 13. Then chazwin/arcc/shaggy 120 and my 125/953 mb

 

[SASQUATCH]

Pretty much confirms my thinking, along with radar from KTBW. Not really much of an “eyewall” per say because the winds have really spread out.

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Yep, looks as though it's going "baroclinic" with it starting to tilt back towards cooler air. Starting to take on that Nor'Easter look.

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

lexx’s 110 landfall prog is lowest of the 13. Then chazwin/arcc/shaggy 120 and my 125/953 mb

I would be surprised if it’s 125 at landfall

 

[Shawn]

Bros. Calm tf down. He's trying to intensify as we speak. Hail & Lightning in the core again and a 6.5 T rating

Sat estimate at 928mb...