Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

[GaWx]

Honestly, unless something changes, my 120mph call may be generous.

I haven’t seen anyone say this but I hope you’re right. On what are you basing this? My guess was 125 and I’d love to miss it too high. However, even if so, would it change the overall effects all that much? It still looks to be a monster.

Milton looks ummmm less than optimal....

View attachment 153052

Great to see but then again this has been expected/forecasted and it is still a beast.

 

[Triplephase93]

A couple of these cams have IR technology.

 

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: coming in much earlier than the 5AM of the 6Z; this run is in line with the other models and landfalls near Tampa Bay around 11PM EDT

 

[jrips27]

12Z Euro: coming in much earlier than the 5AM of the 6Z; this run is in line with the other models and landfalls near Tampa Bay around 11PM EDT

Definitely not moving in a straight line either

 

[Arcc]

I haven’t seen anyone say this but I hope you’re right. On what are you basing this? My guess was 125 and I’d love to miss it too high. However, even if so, would it change the overall effects all that much? It still looks to be a monster.

Great to see but then again this has been expected/forecasted and it is still a beast.

Satellite trends mostly. The trump card is eventually extratropical transition will slow the bleeding, but how much weakening happens before then. That said, if dry air will hollow out the rest of the core, I think it would really help the landfall regions. Still gonna be a nasty storm regardless, but if those really high winds aloft can’t make it to the surface, it will definitely help.

 

[deltadog03]

I see the HWRF gave up on north of Tampa landfall. Just got finished putting up the hurricane shutters just in case.

 

[GaWx]

12Z landfalls of main globals

Euro 11PM Tampa Bay

ICON 10PM Tampa Bay

CMC ~12:30AM ~Bradenton

GFS 11PM Bradenton

UKMET ~10PM ~Bradenton

 

[RoddyPiper]

Falling apart rather rapidly at the moment.

 

[JMB]

Falling apart rather rapidly at the moment.

Which is a good thing

 

[South AL Wx]

2 pm advisory: Down to 130 mph, pressure up to 944 mb. But the wind field is expanding.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Listening to the Statewide Amateur Radio Net in Florida, and they just said they have 12 tornado warnings now.

SARNET - Florida's State Wide Connected Repeater System Live Audio Feed

SARNET - Florida's State Wide Connected Repeater System Live Audio Feed on Broadcastify.com

www.broadcastify.com

 

[GaWx]

2 pm advisory: Down to 130 mph, pressure up to 944 mb. But the wind field is expanding.

Which is a good thing

It would be a great thing if it were really “falling apart rather rapidly”. I hope it is but that sounds like a bit of an exaggeration especially the “falling apart” portion, which makes it sound like it will no longer be that big of a deal. Imho

 

[Henry2326]

Hafs A and B are so ugly on approach.....

 

[GaWx]

Falling apart rather rapidly at the moment.

Regardless, the storm surge based on everything I’ve read still is going to be very high a la Katrina after she weakened from a 5 to a 3. Also, the very heavy rainfall and tornadoes are still expected to be bad.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Wow!

 

[Henry2326]

Hwrf moved to Tampa Bay and Hmon as bad as the Hafs' are on approach.

 

[Henry2326]

12 Nam moved a notch north on approach, which it also did in the 06z. It is not the lowest pressure for a change. That's the only positive thing I see anywhere in the models.

 

[Shaggy]

If you looked at the IR loops of both Milton and Leslie and then asked which one was 130mph storm versus an 85mph storm and I'd bet you guess wrong.

 

[Brick Tamland]

The tornado outbreak might be the big story with this when it's all over.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The outer eyewall is closing off on the south side in the past few radar frames. If this persists, some modest reintensification would occur.