i think it is interesting that the short range models are north of the envelope. both nams model a northward lurch today before filtering back east. i don't like relying on these models but it's worth monitoring in case the hurricane models follow
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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Triplephase93
Member
Neat tool to see how much surge affects certain areas.
coast.noaa.gov
Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding Impacts
Sea Level Rise Viewer: Visualize community-level impacts from coastal flooding or sea level rise (up to 10 feet above average high tides) at U.S. coastal locations.
coast.noaa.gov
I noticed that most models from the 6z runs were too far left even at the 6hr forecast for 12z. Will be telling today.
Some deep convection firing on the northern half. Anyone have a dashboard or link to monitor surge gauges in the region later today?
Brent
Member
This is gonna be too close to call for Tampa
Henry2326
Member
If that verifies, would it pull up sooner, thus a further north landfall?
Henry2326
Member
NHC 11:00
The NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall.
On another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front
later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to
expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely
cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where
Milton makes landfall.
Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The
track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move
northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track
forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying
near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to
where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
The NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall.
On another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front
later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to
expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely
cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where
Milton makes landfall.
Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The
track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move
northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track
forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying
near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to
where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
Gonna be a long day or two for Florida 
Brent
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Milton is definitely trying to push through the ERC again quickly. Looks similar to how it was a couple days ago and is really trying to push new storms out in the new eye. Eye size at 32 open NW currently.
Sure has. While the storm will likely never again have a donut eye, I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see some re-intensification over the next several hours before leveling off.
As expected, the wind field is expanding rather dramatically.
Brick Tamland
Member
Looks like they have to worry about a tornado outbreak, too.
deluge0529
Member
Where is this? What is this?
South AL Wx
Member
Concerning the tornadoes:
Brent
Member
Somewhere in South Florida. Like something from the Plains in May
Honestly, unless something changes, my 120mph call may be generous.
Downeastnc
Member
Milton looks ummmm less than optimal....
Yeah shear is definitely giving it a beating. Most of the 12z hurricane models have it rising to 945-955mb before landfall. Wonder how winds will respond
Brent
Member
I don't think the NHC will go below major before landfall no matter how bad it looks but we'll see