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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

GaWx said:
Landfall intensity guess contest so far: (Is a deadline of ~6PM EDT fair?) Anyone else? @severestorm , what say you about deadline?

Brick cat 4 at least
NCSNOW 139.64786mph
GaWx 125 mph/953 mb
Chazwin 120 mph
lexx 110 mph

All 5 of these (even lexx’s 110) would easily be the strongest landfall in that area since at least 1921’s 120 mph/958 mb at Tarpon Springs. The top 3 of the list would be the strongest since at least 1851.

Close calls were 1950’s Easy, which passed by closely moving N just offshore and then landfalled at Cedar Key on Sep 5th at ~120/960 mb, 1944’s #11 at Sarasota on Oct 18th (105 mph), and 1935’s #3, which passed by moving N just offshore as a cat 3 on Sep 3 giving Tampa 75 mph winds, a 5.3 ft surge, and 7.3” of rain before a landfall in Big Bend.
Click to expand...
I'll go with the high end at 935 MB 135 mph at landfall. (actually, just as the eastern eyewall comes ashore).
 
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND
EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES
 
GaWx said:
Landfall intensity guess contest so far: (Is a deadline of ~6PM EDT fair?) Anyone else? @severestorm , what say you about deadline?

Brick cat 4 at least
NCSNOW 139.64786mph
GaWx 125 mph/953 mb
Chazwin 120 mph
lexx 110 mph

All 5 of these (even lexx’s 110) would easily be the strongest landfall in that area since at least 1921’s 120 mph/958 mb at Tarpon Springs. The top 3 of the list would be the strongest since at least 1851.

Close calls were 1950’s Easy, which passed by closely moving N just offshore and then landfalled at Cedar Key on Sep 5th at ~120/960 mb, 1944’s #11 at Sarasota on Oct 18th (105 mph), and 1935’s #3, which passed by moving N just offshore as a cat 3 on Sep 3 giving Tampa 75 mph winds, a 5.3 ft surge, and 7.3” of rain before a landfall in Big Bend.
Click to expand...
135 mph at landfall
 
Snowfan said:
Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024

...MILTON BACK TO CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH...
...FLORIDA RESIDENTS SHOULD GET THEIR FAMILIES AND HOMES READY AND
EVACUATE IF TOLD TO DO SO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 87.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES
Click to expand...
I truly don't understand why someone would need to tell you to evacuate. For goodness sake, watch this from afar!!
 
GaWx said:
Landfall intensity guess contest so far: (Is a deadline of ~6PM EDT fair?) Anyone else? @severestorm , what say you about deadline?

Brick cat 4 at least
NCSNOW 139.64786mph
GaWx 125 mph/953 mb
Chazwin 120 mph
lexx 110 mph

All 5 of these (even lexx’s 110) would easily be the strongest landfall in that area since at least 1921’s 120 mph/958 mb at Tarpon Springs. The top 3 of the list would be the strongest since at least 1851.

Close calls were 1950’s Easy, which passed by closely moving N just offshore and then landfalled at Cedar Key on Sep 5th at ~120/960 mb, 1944’s #11 at Sarasota on Oct 18th (105 mph), and 1935’s #3, which passed by moving N just offshore as a cat 3 on Sep 3 giving Tampa 75 mph winds, a 5.3 ft surge, and 7.3” of rain before a landfall in Big Bend.
Click to expand...

I’ll go 120mph myself as of right now.
 
GaWx said:
Landfall intensity guess contest so far: (Is a deadline of ~6PM EDT fair?) Anyone else? @severestorm , what say you about deadline?

Brick cat 4 at least
NCSNOW 139.64786mph
GaWx 125 mph/953 mb
Chazwin 120 mph
lexx 110 mph

All 5 of these (even lexx’s 110) would easily be the strongest landfall in that area since at least 1921’s 120 mph/958 mb at Tarpon Springs. The top 3 of the list would be the strongest since at least 1851.

Close calls were 1950’s Easy, which passed by closely moving N just offshore and then landfalled at Cedar Key on Sep 5th at ~120/960 mb, 1944’s #11 at Sarasota on Oct 18th (105 mph), and 1935’s #3, which passed by moving N just offshore as a cat 3 on Sep 3 giving Tampa 75 mph winds, a 5.3 ft surge, and 7.3” of rain before a landfall in Big Bend.
Click to expand...
190mph into Key West. Lets shock the world.
 
Brent said:
Additionally, the first stages of
extratropical transition may be just underway as Milton is reaching
the coast, which could impart some baroclinic energy and slow the
rate of weakening.
Click to expand...
The people in inland Florida should pay special attention to that statement. Along with the fast forward motion, Helene was also undergoing extratropical transition after landfall which helped bring powerful winds of 100mph far inland.
 
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