• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

Henry2326 said:
I'm confused. What's with the cat2? We have 4 hurricane models that are cat3 or 4.....why oh why are they being discounted, again?
HWRF 946
HMON 954
A and B. 963 (on approach 955 and 956)
Click to expand...

I don’t think they are being discounted, but what the HWRF is showing at the surface doesnt match what it is seeing aloft which is a rapidly weakening storm.

1728416091321.png
 
Henry2326 said:
I'm confused. What's with the cat2? We have 4 hurricane models that are cat3 or 4.....why oh why are they being discounted, again?
HWRF 946
HMON 954
A and B. 963 (on approach 955 and 956)
Click to expand...
Oh I don’t think it will be down to cat 2 at landfall. I was responding to another post. Depending on what happens the next 12 hours I may very change my mind on getting down to 120.
 
Henry2326 said:
I think that's the issue.....it won't be a rapidly weakening storm and that's what hwrf is telling us.
Click to expand...

At the surface it doesn’t, but aloft it certainly is. This is what sim IR looks like less that twelve hours after landfall.

I think the bigger problem is if the HWRF is wrong and this moves farther south. Like Ian, the farther south will mean less shear.

1728416799511.png
 
Growing mode


rbtop-animated.gif
 
Well, def not as much “northerly” movement the last 6 hours. I see it pretty much due east. Looks like the 18z model suite moved south a bit. We shall see see
 
Landfall intensity guess contest so far: (Is a deadline of ~6PM EDT fair?) Anyone else? @severestorm , what say you about deadline?

Brick cat 4 at least
NCSNOW 139.64786mph
GaWx 125 mph/953 mb
Chazwin 120 mph
lexx 110 mph

All 5 of these (even lexx’s 110) would easily be the strongest landfall in that area since at least 1921’s 120 mph/958 mb at Tarpon Springs. The top 3 of the list would be the strongest since at least 1851.

Close calls were 1950’s Easy, which passed by closely moving N just offshore and then landfalled at Cedar Key on Sep 5th at ~120/960 mb, 1944’s #11 at Sarasota on Oct 18th (105 mph), and 1935’s #3, which passed by moving N just offshore as a cat 3 on Sep 3 giving Tampa 75 mph winds, a 5.3 ft surge, and 7.3” of rain before a landfall in Big Bend.
 
Last edited:
There is still about another hour until the next recon pass. I expect the pressure to rival yesterday's peak intensity, with measured winds perhaps slightly less due to the somewhat larger +—10 mi wide eye. I'll be interested if recon finds a second outer maximum precursor to another EWRC already.
 
deltadog03 said:
Well, def not as much “northerly” movement the last 6 hours. I see it pretty much due east. Looks like the 18z model suite moved south a bit. We shall see see
Click to expand...
It's not supposed to start "northerly" until midnight or so tonight, per every set of models. Euro AI is Wednesday morning.
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top