Wild guess: 953 mb/125 mph meaning strongest storm in that region in over 100 years
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Tropical Major Hurricane Milton
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Wild guess: 953 mb/125 mph meaning strongest storm in that region in over 100 years
Henry2326
Member
Lord, what a beast....
The intensity models are already wrong. Milton has regained CAT 5 intensity based on recent reconnaissance and improved satellite presentation since the last mission.
BHS1975
Member
You can see the four Mesovorts in the eye.
Henry2326
Member
Hwrf and hmon show the next lowest pressures on Wednesday morning at 919 and 912 pressures respectively.
HAFS A and B are also Wednesday morning at 925 and 918.
HAFS A and B are also Wednesday morning at 925 and 918.
Belle Lechat
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Henry2326
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I'm saying that's the low point for each tomorrow.
Belle Lechat
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NCSNOW
Member
139.64786mph right dead square into the Bay.
Cbmatt2408
Member
This think looks like it downshifted and has the foot on the accelerator again. That eye has cleared out and the core has regained some nice symmetry.
AL, 14, 2024100818, , BEST, 0, 225N, 881W, 140, 920, HU
Cat 5 again.
Cat 5 again.
I think this is going to be a cat 4 at least at landfall.
Brent
Member
AL, 14, 2024100818, , BEST, 0, 225N, 881W, 140, 920, HU
Cat 5 again
Cat 5 again
Henry2326
Member
This is not good....
lexxnchloe
Member
110mph and since its weakening wind will be more like a cat1. Surge however will be that of a major cane.
I looks like there’s going to be some jet enhancement as it’s starting a conversion to extra tropical conversion… that will likely help to keep some very strong gusts, 110-130mph even if it does weaken down to cat 2. My guess is around 120mph at landfall
945 mb and 140 mph landfall.
Looks like it's off to the races again. Nice symmetry on the sat.
Looks like it's off to the races again. Nice symmetry on the sat.
Henry2326
Member
I'm confused. What's with the cat2? We have 4 hurricane models that are cat3 or 4.....why oh why are they being discounted, again?
HWRF 946
HMON 954
A and B. 963 (on approach 955 and 956)
Henry2326
Member
That's Hwrf....I'm in.
Brent
Member
No Atlantic storm has ever gone sub 900 twice
Milton gonna try before this night is over
Milton gonna try before this night is over
Yep, Allen looks to have been the closest.
severestorm
Member
yikes
I don’t think they are being discounted, but what the HWRF is showing at the surface doesnt match what it is seeing aloft which is a rapidly weakening storm.
Oh I don’t think it will be down to cat 2 at landfall. I was responding to another post. Depending on what happens the next 12 hours I may very change my mind on getting down to 120.
Henry2326
Member
I think that's the issue.....it won't be a rapidly weakening storm and that's what hwrf is telling us.
At the surface it doesn’t, but aloft it certainly is. This is what sim IR looks like less that twelve hours after landfall.
I think the bigger problem is if the HWRF is wrong and this moves farther south. Like Ian, the farther south will mean less shear.
Belle Lechat
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Growing mode
JimRussell
Member
thing of beauty and horror.....Growing mode
tennessee storm
Member
Starting slow up some also….Growing mode
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah he starting get that classic buzz saw look to him now
Well, def not as much “northerly” movement the last 6 hours. I see it pretty much due east. Looks like the 18z model suite moved south a bit. We shall see see
Landfall intensity guess contest so far: (Is a deadline of ~6PM EDT fair?) Anyone else? @severestorm , what say you about deadline?
Brick cat 4 at least
NCSNOW 139.64786mph
GaWx 125 mph/953 mb
Chazwin 120 mph
lexx 110 mph
All 5 of these (even lexx’s 110) would easily be the strongest landfall in that area since at least 1921’s 120 mph/958 mb at Tarpon Springs. The top 3 of the list would be the strongest since at least 1851.
Close calls were 1950’s Easy, which passed by closely moving N just offshore and then landfalled at Cedar Key on Sep 5th at ~120/960 mb, 1944’s #11 at Sarasota on Oct 18th (105 mph), and 1935’s #3, which passed by moving N just offshore as a cat 3 on Sep 3 giving Tampa 75 mph winds, a 5.3 ft surge, and 7.3” of rain before a landfall in Big Bend.
Brick cat 4 at least
NCSNOW 139.64786mph
GaWx 125 mph/953 mb
Chazwin 120 mph
lexx 110 mph
All 5 of these (even lexx’s 110) would easily be the strongest landfall in that area since at least 1921’s 120 mph/958 mb at Tarpon Springs. The top 3 of the list would be the strongest since at least 1851.
Close calls were 1950’s Easy, which passed by closely moving N just offshore and then landfalled at Cedar Key on Sep 5th at ~120/960 mb, 1944’s #11 at Sarasota on Oct 18th (105 mph), and 1935’s #3, which passed by moving N just offshore as a cat 3 on Sep 3 giving Tampa 75 mph winds, a 5.3 ft surge, and 7.3” of rain before a landfall in Big Bend.
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Mahomeless
Member
Some people (always the same ones) like to downplay if it isn't in their backyard.
Sctvman
Member
18Z tracks have moved further S for FL landfall. Most Manatee or Sarasota County
There is still about another hour until the next recon pass. I expect the pressure to rival yesterday's peak intensity, with measured winds perhaps slightly less due to the somewhat larger +—10 mi wide eye. I'll be interested if recon finds a second outer maximum precursor to another EWRC already.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Sheesh look at that eye. Nearly perfect. Also looks like he is taking on annular characteristics. 
Henry2326
Member
It's not supposed to start "northerly" until midnight or so tonight, per every set of models. Euro AI is Wednesday morning.
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severestorm
Member