Tropical Major Hurricane Milton

[Stormsfury]

So any change in landfall has bigger effects on my weather on the east cost, but does this look a little bit of a south shift in the GEFS?
View attachment 152909

Yeah, that looks a bit south of previous GEFS runs. Drives me nuts the HWRF is insistent on its northern route vs everything else.

 

[Henry2326]

10 am NHC.....looks like they learned something last week.

"However, it is critical to remember that even at 36-48 hours away, NHC's track forecasts can be off by an average of 60-70 n mi, which means we still can't pinpoint an exact landfall location...."

"The NHC intensity forecast is close to the top
end of the model envelope, which includes the GFS and ECMWF models, since these models should have a better handle on a potential positive trough interaction."

 

[Henry2326]

Yeah, that looks a bit south of previous GEFS runs. Drives me nuts the HWRF is insistent on its northern route vs everything else.

If I remember correctly, the times it's been stubborn like that, it's had the closest forecast to landfall point. But take me with a grain of salt....I'm an Hwrf fan so I tend to look over it's faults.

 

[Stormsfury]

If I remember correctly, the times it's been stubborn like that, it's had the closest forecast to landfall point. But take me with a grain of salt....I'm an Hwrf fan so I tend to look over it's faults.

The HWRF can't simply be ignored but latest short term movement of Milton has been east and even wobbled a little south of due east again since the last center fix.

 

[Belle Lechat]

and even wobbled a little south of due east again since the last center fix.

I noticed that in the satellite picture, but here's the recon image with the center track lines.

 

[Henry2326]

The HWRF can't simply be ignored but latest short term movement of Milton has been east and even wobbled a little south of due east again since the last center fix.

It's 80 miles from Tampa to Crystal River, so even shorter across water. It could go either way.

Here's another reason I support HWRF.....there is quite a right turn after 27n 84w for HMON for example. Anything is possible, obviously after this week, but a large storm making a right turn? I don't know. Hwrf has more of a slope in approach.
They are both at the same point, same timeframe.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Triplephase93]

Be interesting to see if this strategy works.

 

[jrips27]

Euro ticked south

 

[Belle Lechat]

Be interesting to see if this strategy works.

Be interesting to see what happens.

For some added content, the recon image has a satellite update in which the eye is lightly visible.

 

[Brent]

Wind field is getting much larger now. This will likely only be more of a trend as it gets closer to Florida

 

[Snowfan]

SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 88.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...840 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

 

[ForsythSnow]

Eye is clearing again, likely going to see much lower pressures again

 

[Belle Lechat]

New plane

 

[severestorm]

What's everyone's landfall intensity call?

 

[Belle Lechat]

Updated with new center and track

 

[Henry2326]

12z HWRF and HMON meet in the middle at Tarpon Springs, north of Tampa.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Henry2326]

View attachment 152928

Let's believe that since they've done such a phenomenal job this week.....

 

[Belle Lechat]