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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Last dropsonde is 936 mb w/ 24 KT wind (10 kt of wind for every mb is usually a good rule of thumb here).
Thus, the minimum surface pressure is now down to about 934 hPa, Michael continues to intensify rather quickly.

recon_AF306-1314A-MICHAEL_dropsonde14_20181010-1050 (1).png
 
Weatherlover92 said:
It's not mentioned much, but HWRF-P does show Michael with a pressure of 926mb as it's about to make landfall in the FL panhandle.
EDIT: This is the 00z run last night.
hwrf-p_mslp_wind_14L_7.png
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Thank you.....I will be watching it for the next one. :cool:
 
snowlover91 said:
The Euro may not be overdone with wind gusts for NC. The 3km NAM handled the wind gusts very well for my area in Florence and other storms I’ve tracked. Here’s what it shows for Raleigh due to some baroclinic enhancement on the backside of the storm. This has been trending stronger btw.
View attachment 6890
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Sort of what happened with Hazel north of NC, baroclinic enhancement kept it powerful all the way into Canada.... not expecting that but I think the NAM maybe on to something. I fully expect I'll see stronger winds here then I ever did with Florence.

Btw my sister is hunkered down..... sadly an animal shelter she volunteers for is located near Panama City Beach, sad
 
metwannabe said:
Sort of what happened with Hazel north of NC, baroclinic enhancement kept it powerful all the way into Canada.... not expecting that but I think the NAM maybe on to something. I fully expect I'll see stronger winds here then I ever did with Florence.

Btw my sister is hunkered down..... sadly an animal shelter she volunteers for is located near Panama City Beach, sad
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I have to agree here, this isn't like Florence in the sense that there won't be any support to maintain the storm at least a little as it comes inland, trough interactions often broaden the wind field but it could still easily carry tropical storm force winds, thus I'm scratching my head why tropical storm watches/warnings haven't been hoisted already further inland across central NC.
 
Hearing that it’s taken a slight jog west (can anyone confirm?), if so this is definitely a worst case scenario unfolding for Panama City.
 
RollTide18 said:
Hearing that it’s taken a slight jog west (can anyone confirm?), if so this is definitely a worst case scenario unfolding for Panama City.
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If anything a slight east of due north movement but if you smooth out the wobbles still basically looks due north.....
 
Yeah sadly as Florida Governor said anyone directly on coast probably has no more time to safely evacuate I hope people are heeding advice and taking shelter inland away from their beach front condos such
 
I really hope local officials make the right calls regarding various activities, schools, etc. in NC because hurricane Michael will not just roll over and die when it comes inland given the baroclinic support it'll have at its disposal. Overall impacts may actually be more severe than Florence for those outside the southern coastal plain and NW of I-95 in NC.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I really hope local officials make the right calls regarding various activities, schools, etc. in NC because hurricane Michael will not just roll over and die when it comes inland given the baroclinic support it'll have at its disposal. Overall impacts may actually be more severe than Florence for those outside the southern coastal plain and NW of I-95 in NC.
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Yeah I'm noticing the models are picking up on some baroclinic enhancement on the west side of the storm. The 3km NAM has a band of 65-75mph winds rotating through places like Raleigh. The Euro was showing 60-70mph and the GFS 50-65mph in this backside band so there seems to be good agreement for winds gusting 50-70mph on west side of Michael in NC. They've also been trending stronger with this band and from what I've heard, locals in places like Raleigh are only saying winds gusting 30-40mph at best... if true that's really bad because very few will be prepared for it.
 
Looks to be taking a NE jog in the last few frames. Let's see if it continues to hook right, or straighten back north a bit.
 
packfan98 said:
Looks to be taking a NE jog in the last few frames. Let's see if it continues to hook right, or straighten back north a bit.
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All along I;ve been "cheering" for this storm to get East of Panama City, and all along it's been toeing the line. It's going to have to turn quickly at this point. I hope you're right about an eastern component beginning, but I'm afraid it's too far north to miss PC.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I really hope local officials make the right calls regarding various activities, schools, etc. in NC because hurricane Michael will not just roll over and die when it comes inland given the baroclinic support it'll have at its disposal. Overall impacts may actually be more severe than Florence for those outside the southern coastal plain and NW of I-95 in NC.
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Yeah, I am thinking schools might be closed again tomorrow. Might not be the rain this time like Florence, but the winds here could be worse than with Flo.
 
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