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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

deltadog03 said:
WOW! BTW, check out the CAPE map I just posted.....don't know if I can recall a landfalling cane or TS in NGOM with that much energy available and little to NO cap
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It's honestly dependent on d theta/dh, this time of the year is ripe for maximum CAPE/instability and little capping in the Atlantic because the atmosphere begins to cool in response to seasonal insolation changes while the ocean lags and usually nears its climatological SST peak in/around early October/late September allowing the moist static energy budget to also reach its peak. This sets the prime conditions for something like this in a large-scale sense, shear becomes more of a limiting factor.
 
Woke up to TS watches and warnings 1 county away!! Must have been NW shift!? Still down playing by local Mets, they say 30 mph gusts only!?
 
It’s amazing how you can see the waves in the clouds rippling away from the eye on the IR loop. You couldn’t see that with the previous GOES satellite.


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With the insane amount of convection around the eye most of strong winds aloft will be brought down to the surface at landfall if it’s maintained.


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6z RGEM

rgem_apcpn_seus_47.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
WRAL saying 45 mph wind here with gusts to 60, and 3 to 6 inches of rain Thursday.
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NWS not impressed with wind potential, not sure they won't be playing a little catch up later. I know the Euro wind gust map is overdone but it has widespread 60+ gust over our area. Ok knock 10-15 off still 45-50 which seems plausible considering speed of movement. They have max 30 in Wake and upper 20's here.

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The Euro may not be overdone with wind gusts for NC. The 3km NAM handled the wind gusts very well for my area in Florence and other storms I’ve tracked. Here’s what it shows for Raleigh due to some baroclinic enhancement on the backside of the storm. This has been trending stronger btw.
4723B9FA-CFF0-4E95-94B2-CECA069D526E.png
 
snowlover91 said:
The Euro may not be overdone with wind gusts for NC. The 3km NAM handled the wind gusts very well for my area in Florence and other storms I’ve tracked. Here’s what it shows for Raleigh due to some baroclinic enhancement on the backside of the storm. This has been trending stronger btw.
View attachment 6890
Click to expand...
You got one of them pretty maps for SC?
 
Recon just found 931.7 extrap pressure... and SFMR of 125kts in NE quad. May be enough to get this upped to 145mph now.
 
Fv3 6z only approaching landfall at 961 and appears to have shifted slightly south in GA.
GFS 6z slightly south in GA and 958 st approach.
GA reference is to 1 position after entering GA.
 
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