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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

snowlover91 said:
If this is 135-145mph at landfall gusts will be 160-170 in some areas. This is going to make a run for category 4 today, unfortunately. I hope everyone in Panama City is evacuated because there will not be much left after the surge and wind moves through.
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This isn’t really true.. because of friction you usually see the sustained winds verify as gusts on land.. so 135-145 gusts...
 
EastAtlwx said:
This isn’t really true.. because of friction you usually see the sustained winds verify as gusts on land.. so 135-145 gusts...
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Ocean front areas have no land to slow the winds down... so yes 160-170mph gusts are certainly possible in those areas if this is a cat 4.
 
He is still fighting some dry air too, never under estimate the power of a little dry air in a TC (although it only is probably just delaying the inevitable)
 
Latest visibles show the eye is clearing out more now, very ominous look.
goes16_vis_meso1_20181009152831.jpg
 
metwannabe said:
He is still fighting some dry air too, never under estimate the power of a little dry air in a TC (although it only is probably just delaying the inevitable)
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Yeah the dry air has really slowed the western side of this system down but it now appears the eyewall is closing back off based on latest recon. IR is also showing the convection really wrapping now and if that continues there really isn't much to weaken it until landfall. I'm seeing reports on twitter of the surge already flooding some areas with water rises of a few feet so far.
 
One concerning thing I've noticed too, is even though the models are speeding up Michael initially, it's not rocketing out of here once inland like it once was. No Florence stall and crawl I know but any reduction in forward speed is problematic especially with the enhance precip on the NW side as noted previously
 
26.0N 85.6W 80 84 100/ 35/ 49 998.7

This buoy, which is just east of where the eye is headed, shows 84F or 29C SST, i.e., still bathwater/closer to norms of a month ago. It is this way all the way to the coast.
 
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One request when discussing the model runs- many are saying so and so model is 50 miles ‘north’, ‘south’, ‘east’, ‘west’ and are referring to where Michael will pass through your back yard which may be 500-800 miles away from the actual landfall point.

Normally it is the landfall point we are discussing when we say a model is 45 miles east or west so please take note to reference what geographic area you are looking at when you say such and such model is coming in so and so of the previous run.
 
F-5 said:
One request when discussing the model runs- many are saying so and so model is 50 miles ‘north’, ‘south’, ‘east’, ‘west’ and are referring to where Michael will pass through your back yard which may be 500-800 miles away from the actual landfall point.

Normally it is the landfall point we are discussing when we say a model is 45 miles east or west so please take note to reference what geographic area you are looking at when you say such and such model is coming in so and so of the previous run.
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We just say it as we see it
 
F-5 said:
One request when discussing the model runs- many are saying so and so model is 50 miles ‘north’, ‘south’, ‘east’, ‘west’ and are referring to where Michael will pass through your back yard which may be 500-800 miles away from the actual landfall point.

Normally it is the landfall point we are discussing when we say a model is 45 miles east or west so please take note to reference what geographic area you are looking at when you say such and such model is coming in so and so of the previous run.
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When we say a model is "north" typically it is referring to the previous run. For instance, the 12Z ICON was north of the 6Z icon. It has nothing to do with back yard posts.
 
Last couple of frames Michael has wobble little more west, or maybe I'm just seeing things
 
When’s the cvs3-GFS run again?
 
Did anybody post the 11 AM NHC updated track?? I saw it on local news, it looks N of last advisory!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
When’s the cvs3-GFS run again?
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Its started to run. It's also the FV3.
Tarheel1 said:
Did anybody post the 11 AM NHC updated track?? I saw it on local news, it looks N of last advisory!?
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It moved a hair north. I compared the interactive maps between advisory 12 and 11 and it went north about 10 miles.
 
Michael is moving, at a NNW motion, wonder if places west of PC like Destin could get a direct hit as the CMC is showing? Idk, just bored and on vacation
 
accu35 said:
Michael is moving, at a NNW motion, wonder if places west of PC like Destin could get a direct hit as the CMC is showing? Idk, just bored and on vacation
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NHC track actually gets it just west of due south of Destin before the bend back NNE... it looks on track to me
 
metwannabe said:
Not much if any change with the FV3 from it's previous run
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Was it still one of the farther N and W runs, like it’s been the last few days?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Was it still one of the farther N and W runs, like it’s been the last few days?
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Not anymore. It is now near the consensus and much slower. Just 5 runs ago it was near Atlanta as of 8PM EDT tomorrow. Now it is near where AL, FL, and GA come together at 8PM tomorrow! I know the CMC has struggled. But the FV3 hasn’t done well either.
 
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