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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

GaWx said:
There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.
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I still believe from Pensacola to PC LF.
 
IF Michael were to hit N FL as a major H, it would become the latest on record to do so and the 2nd latest on the northern Gulf coast back to 1851. Only #10 of 1886, which hit LA/TX on 10/12, hit later than when Michael will hit.
 
Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.
 
GaWx said:
Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.
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Whats interesting is the shift south slightly, as y'all have said, but for my back yard, its actually wetter this run, and gusts still possible upwards of 70+
 
BEB21483-8696-49AE-B036-08A06C22ECEE.png Looks like I was right! I’m losing this thing to my SE!:( 6z
 
Looks like the shear has abated now. CDO becoming very circular and seeing outflow now expand to the west. Hot towers exploding in the eyewall.
 
From the dropsonde about an hour ago. Should be nearing MH status in the next 5-6 hours.

recon_NOAA2-0914A-MICHAEL_dropsonde3_20181009-0906.png
 
See..... I wasn't completely crazy, Lol

reported that the eyewall had become less
organized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment
 
metwannabe said:
See..... I wasn't completely crazy, Lol

reported that the eyewall had become less
organized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment
Click to expand...
Yeah, it’s looking slightly lopsided, with the big feeder band on the right side. That doesn’t scream RI, and can help ingest more dry air
 
metwannabe said:
See..... I wasn't completely crazy, Lol

reported that the eyewall had become less
organized, which may be due to some dry air entrainment
Click to expand...
Its starting to look like that has been worked out and the core looks better and better each sat pic
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, it’s looking slightly lopsided, with the big feeder band on the right side. That doesn’t scream RI, and can help ingest more dry air
Click to expand...
That was last night with the dry air that as the NHC stated "paused" strengthening, it's looking plenty healthy this morning unfortunately and dry air will not be an issue at this point
 
Can anyone explain why Gov. Deal hasn't yet declared a state of emergency for south and middle Georgia? The governor of Alabama issued a statewide state of emergency yesterday afternoon, and of course north Florida has been under an SOE for the last couple of days.
 
...MICHAEL STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...
7:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 9
Location: 24.5°N 86.1°W
Moving: NNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph
 
Looks like PCB to St.George Island will be landfall spot. FFC issued a tropical weather statement, very much in line with what all these models are showing. 25-40 mph winds, with occasional 60+, mainly along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon.

Looks to be a glancing blow & nothing more north of there unless something changes.
 
Eye is starting to try to clear on IR this morning.. hot towers firing around the eye and looks much better than it did last night. I would expect a run to cat 3 later today, once the eye clears the pressure should drop pretty quickly.
goes16_ir_meso1_20181009122431.jpg
 
And the GFS 2: Electric Boogaloo has Michael going right over me when it comes inland. Hope he likes my Halloween decorations.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Once the eyewall closes off and Michael moves away from the shallow warm water near and just to its west, this may have a chance to really take off. The last HH sonde brought its MSLP down to 968 hPa, this storm is intensifying a lot.
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Eric, what are your thoughts on the transition and interaction of Michael as it moves across NC? I'm noticing some models are enhancing the west side, possibly due to some baroclinic influences as it is transitioning to extratropical? Euro wind gusts are pretty concerning for coastal NC with gusts over hurricane force... realistic or is the Euro out to lunch here?
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Weren't you saying last night that it looked good and a cat 4 or 5 was possible?
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Yep the eye is clearing a little slower than I expected but a run to cat 4 is definitely possible. The dry air has been causing some issues with the eyewall slowing down the process but it has plenty of time to make a run at cat 4 especially with the deep convection it continues to maintain. The west/south side is where it's weakest and needs to improve to make cat 4 strength.
 
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