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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

This is a mean core based on radar and zero doubt at this stage a high end cat 4 will be making landfall. Absent RF interference, picking up several >200mph pixels on super res vel out of KLCH, higest in past 10 minutes is 210mph. At some point the radar will go down do to disruption of power and/or wind
 
000
WTNT63 KNHC 270054
TCUAT3

Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020
800 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2020

...800 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...POSSIBLE TORNADOES OCCURRING IN LAURA'S OUTER BANDS OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 93.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Pasch
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Forecaster Berg/Pasch
 
I do believe she is currently a category 5. Two passes have returned pressures 5+ mb lower than the last advisory. Winds can take a bit to catch up at the surface. Praying for an eyewall replacement cycle at this point.
 
Shawn said:
I do believe she is currently a category 5. Two passes have returned pressures 5+ mb lower than the last advisory. Winds can take a bit to catch up at the surface. Praying for an eyewall replacement cycle at this point.
Click to expand...

I feel like it's a bit too late for an ERC now. Landfall is in 4 or so hours.
 
Shawn said:
I do believe she is currently a category 5. Two passes have returned pressures 5+ mb lower than the last advisory. Winds can take a bit to catch up at the surface. Praying for an eyewall replacement cycle at this point.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately, ERC is near impossible. With not long before landfall, and no evidence of any double maximums nor breaks in the eye, and a relatively stable if not slowly shrinking eye, it can only stay strong or intensify further.
 
Steady or very slow mb rise up to landfall is the billet, western flank on IR is more robust compared to eastern, likely a function of weak trough venting which can be clearly seen on WV. Just to be clear, max potential from a surge standpoint is already fixed and it's going to be catastrophic for areas along and east of landfall.
 
Notice deeper convection looks more heavyweight On its western side now, maybe a sign of a tiny bit of disruption?
 
6f06dff0149d62078d982524cf2430f1.jpg


Not sure it will make a difference. but the southern part of that eye isn’t as impressive as it was. Maybe the eye opening some which could be a slight sign of weakening slightly not much


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
AF300 Mission #25 is just about to enter.
 
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