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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura

Unsurvivable storm surge with large and destructive waves will cause
catastrophic damage from Sea Rim State Park, Texas, to Intracoastal
City, Louisiana, including Calcasieu and Sabine Lakes. This surge
could penetrate up to 40 miles inland from the immediate coastline,
and flood waters will not fully recede for several days after the
storm.
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The NHC is now saying the storm surge could go into 40 miles inland. Wow.
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Im trying to figure out who takes the harder hit: Lake Charles or Port Arthur. Close call
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While this is no way a diminishing of the utter destruction these location will see, but I personally think we dodged a major bullet. Had this been a direct hit over NOLA or Houston the amount of pain would be worse.
 
Regarding the tornado threat I think this outer band Is going to be one of the main tornado threats over the next few hours as more cells move ashore and move northwest.FC9DBA49-C87D-48A1-A3EA-088A62C3E39E.pngFC9DBA49-C87D-48A1-A3EA-088A62C3E39E.png
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Im trying to figure out who takes the harder hit: Lake Charles or Port Arthur. Close call
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Both.....
Lake Charles is already flooding.
They expect water to top the levee in Port Arthur....

www.panews.com

WEDNESDAY 4 a.m. UPDATE: Areas inside PA Hurricane Flood Protection system at risk - Port Arthur News

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready... Life-threatening storm surge with large and dangerous waves is expected to produce potentially catastrophic damage from San Louis Pass to the mouth of the Mississippi River, including areas inside the Port Arthur Hurricane Flood Protection system. That...
www.panews.com
 
If you guys are interested I have a way to watch the local news stations. All you need is a streaming device. Message me for details. I think these stations would be better then TWC.


KPLC TV - CBS
FOX29
WAFB9


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Should be noted NHC forecasting max gusts of 160kts, which is roughly 185mph
 
Shaggy said:
While this is no way a diminishing of the utter destruction these location will see, but I personally think we dodged a major bullet. Had this been a direct hit over NOLA or Houston the amount of pain would be worse.
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Oh yeah I was in Galveston drove through Houston a month ago and I can't stop thinking about how lucky they are gonna be

Dewpoint Dan said:
I still can't get over Katrina "only" being 125. Hard to believe this monster is much more powerful than Katrina.
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Katrina was also falling apart at landfall it had been 175 the day before
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
I still can't get over Katrina "only" being 125. Hard to believe this monster is much more powerful than Katrina.
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Much of the surge has to do with the size of the wind field. A 125mph hurricane with a large wind field like Katrina will push in a lot more water than a really small 145mph hurricane. Unfortunately here with the way the coast is so flat here in LA there will be water pushing inland up to 40 miles like the NHC is calling for... I hope people have heeded the warnings and evacuated.
 
Getting off and on heavy rains now from that band. Not a whole lot of wind. I have a rain gauge and a barometer/temperature/humidity weather station. I wish I had invested in an anemometer too.
 
Brent said:
Oh yeah I was in Galveston drove through Houston a month ago and I can't stop thinking about how lucky they are gonna be



Katrina was also falling apart at landfall it had been 175 the day before
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Yeah usually when a hurricane is falling apart at landfall it doesn't do as much damage right ? I would much rather it be weakening at landfall than strengthening
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
Yeah usually when a hurricane is falling apart at landfall it doesn't do as much damage right ? I would much rather it be weakening at landfall than strengthening
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Well with Katrina, she underwent an ERC then shear also took hold which Katrina did not recover from... the by product was that the wind field broadened even wider than it's already expansive wind field ...

The storm surge was still exceptional because of the build up was already set when Katrina catapulted into Cat 5 status and was also a tremendously large hurricane (and the pressure at landfall was still very deep in the 920mb range)...
 
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snowlover91 said:
Much of the surge has to do with the size of the wind field. A 125mph hurricane with a large wind field like Katrina will push in a lot more water than a really small 145mph hurricane. Unfortunately here with the way the coast is so flat here in LA there will be water pushing inland up to 40 miles like the NHC is calling for... I hope people have heeded the warnings and evacuated.
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Its two fold as well as the surge moves in rivers and such also reverse flow and are natural avenues for surge to run inland....it happens in NC all the time were we see surge as far inland as Greenville from the river running essentially running backwards. Now imagine something like the bayous of LA, I imagine places like Cameron LA are going to be completely gone after this one....
 
Henry2326 said:
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I've seen lots of powerful cat 4/5 storms with similar looks before, not sure I agree with Levi here in regards to that being a sign of some shear impacting the storm. My understanding has been that those radial fingers are indicative of improving outflow and upper level conditions in powerful hurricanes like this. Next recon will be interesting to see what they find.
 
Also of note there is a bubble of 30-31C water right near where Laura is forecast to make landfall. As it tightens due to frictional effects of land and encounters this bubble of warmer waters I wouldn't be surprised to see one last burst of convection as it makes landfall. This will probably be 150-160mph range for landfall.

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Katrina also had a 90 degree angle on the coast she was crashing into, causing water to pile up even more. Lots of variables in storm surge height. The ONLY thing that could have made Katrina worse would have been for her to be stronger. But she had a huge wind field and its hard to argue she was lacking in any way, surge wise.
 
snowlover91 said:
Also of note there is a bubble of 30-31C water right near where Laura is forecast to make landfall. As it tightens due to frictional effects of land and encounters this bubble of warmer waters I wouldn't be surprised to see one last burst of convection as it makes landfall. This will probably be 150-160mph range for landfall.

View attachment 47430
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Thats 88 degrees mind you. Insane.


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Henry2326 said:
Mike's Weather Page on facebook....

NHC site showing possible surge heights from Laura www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/211610.shtml?inundation#contents. You can zoom in at specific areas. Another great tool is at https://cera.coastalrisk.live/. Laura expected to be 150mph at landfall tonight. Track remains close to the TX/LA line. www.spaghettimodels.com

View attachment 47431
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Following the river Northeast of St Charles, that's pushing 9+ ft of water over 50 MILES inland. 50 freakin' miles. I realize a whole lot of that is swamp and lowlands, but that's a LONG way!
 
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