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Tropical Major Hurricane Laura
- Thread starter GaWx
- Start date
Forward speed could be a limiting factor with respect to intensification, 10-15mph is ideal for RI, 20mph is booking it. Granted there are corner cases. The central Gulf UL anticyclone looks solid but not as robust compared to 1-2 days ago. Just saying.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah I am not in disagreement that the squrriel hasnt found a nut in this case. Not seeing much from stopping this once it gets clear of Cuba other than ERC timing.
Maybe I'm being overly cynical but the HWRF seems to blow up lots of storms into these monsters.
Brent
Member
Oh I don't usually question them and I'm not now but its just concerning me that what if the EPS is onto something
They are probably right but seeing Marco shift so much in one advisory was kind of eye opening (obviously this isn't Marco but still)
Also on a selfish note I was in Galveston last month and hope to go back next year if it's not destroyed
Tornadocane
Member
Yeah. I think that's what it's meant to do. It gets praise when storms bomb out cause it sees those optimal conditions. I think we now have those conditions in place.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Keep in mind we may never get an ERC too. I forget, but I think either Harvey and/or Michael never saw one.
Henry2326
Member
To your point, the goal is to give folks perspective.....they want an answer to the question "how bad can this be, so I can decide how to prepare or leave".....This model has been throwing bombs for a couple days which sends a message and why the NHC continued adding language about the possibility of rapid intensification.
If I were a betting man I’d bet we see it lower than 940mb at some time if the upper level environment stays good. Lots of history supports this in this region. Landfall is a different matter.
Shaggy
Member
Yeah but just with Marco it had a beast hitting the yucatan. Like i said if it does this with every storm why praise it the one time it has a chance at being right......I guess thats my point.
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Would hitting houston be the worst case scenario here? From what i know its very prone to flooding.
New Orleans could be worse, but awful no matter where if we have a major
NoSnowATL
Member
At that strength hitting anywhere would be awful.
It was Michael... I remember it just steadily strengthened for several days and then within about 6 or 7 hours of landfall just started to blow up, and you just waited to see an ERC that would knock cause the pressure to jump 20 mb and it just never came
Z
Zander98al
Guest
Looks as if the eye of laura is over water now. Its a wait and see game now wether this thing bombs out.
Here is the full 18z EPS
IR about 5 minutes old, amazing we can now pull GOES, 16 variant in real-time, courtesy of Wallops.
Does anyone know if they are having trouble with flying in Cuban airspace? I know in years past we could not get Recon data over there.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I see what you're talking about. But if that is the eye, it is moving more nw than wnw that is being modelled?
JaxHurricane12
Member
I was right in the eye wall of Michael. Never in my life have I seen so much devastation. I remember every second of that day. Whoever is saying that this may not be more than a Cat 2-3...set up is from what I'm seeing very similar to Michael. I'm pretty sure no model had it lower than 930-940 and it came barreling in at 919. We'll see what happens but whoever is in the cone I'd be most definitely getting prepared.
cd2play
Member
POWDER PUFF FOOTBALL!!! Read the reports!!!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I personally agree this'll probably become a monster. The Euro hopped aboard at 18Z and as soon as RI begins that's the HWRF and HMON's wheelhouse. They perform extremely well with powerful storms.
weatherboyy
Member
center is nw not south
I don’t know if this was posted or not but here’s the 00z spaghetti models
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Didn't post so then...but I thought earlier that this was starting to finally truly get the look of a possible future monster. Think I was thinking so either late in the afternoon or early evening.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
It seems that the hwrf and gfs has a much better now cast on the center location and movement than euro?...
I may be wrong, but If I remember correctly the HWRF and the HMON were consistently around 920mb and 140knts at 24hrs out and I think the Euro was mid-920s with Michael.
To your point though, it’s not good seeing the Euro starting to match the HWRF.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Center is now (or nearly) over the gulf per recon obs.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
does it seem to be east of projected path?
Watching Laura come up from over here in Baton Rouge. Probably get some breezy rains and maybe some stray tornadoes, but nothing too serious.
As John Hope used to say, show me a 300mb map and call it a day. GFS, 18z still suspect, 250mb, stacking potential given a very robust mid level axis, I’d be worried more in New Orleans at this point vs Houston. Western envelopment is set at 48hrs,
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WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I know a lot can change, but satellite imagery seems to favor that too.
I think the center is on the north side
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Like a mile, which isn't much.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
JaxHurricane12
Member
Looking at the water vapor I was starting to see the same thing...I see Laura connecting with the sub tropical Jet pulling it more northwards and thus potentially further east. I'd be concerned if I was anywhere on the LA coastline.
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Jrips2710
Member