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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

E8DA67D4-328F-4A36-8238-03A8592F0E9E.gif The turn is coming folks. The trof/weak
Storm5 said:
Looks like a turn North should take place soon
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here was the map from 3 hours ago. You can see the trof starting to dip down
 
pcbjr said:
2 minor things -
1) No real change from 2:00 PM officially; and
2) It is about time for now-casting.
Having said as much, my gut tells me more east by about 20 - 40 miles since that looks like the path of least resistance, at this point in time, anyway (sure to change in 3 hours) ...
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You could be right. Its a big 'ol pinball right now. Somethings got to give lol.
 
deltadog03 said:
View attachment 1168 The turn is coming folks. The trof/weak

here was the map from 3 hours ago. You can see the trof starting to dip down
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Oh your right the SW rounding the base of the main trof is coming, no doubt, it's almost there. Odds are it's going to get picked up. Once again, how aggressively. Like I said, big slow down to a stall basically is 1 of 2 things, its getting ready to turn or it gets missed.
 
I think she is on the verge of a turn. I just took another look at some 6 hour interval 12Z Euro maps I have. They showed the current actual position to be right where the 12Z Euro 12 hour map had her. Furthermore, that Euro showed her 6 hour averaged movement from 2PM til 8PM to average just a little N of due W. The next map, the hour 18 map for 2AM EDT, shows quite a dramatic turn to the NNW. So, in deference to the Euro and when considering the recent stall, I think we're just about to see the turn to the NNW commence. Other opinions? This is like the most important part of the track right here!
 
It appears that it's on the WNW track now, but then again it still looks like it still has a westerly movement to it.
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WeatherWatch said:
It appears that it's on the WNW track now, but then again it still looks like it still has a westerly movement to it.
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I agree, you can even see in the last two frames what appears to be somewhat of a SW movement or a wobble.
 
NWMSGuy said:
I agree, you can even see in the last two frames what appears to be somewhat of a SW movement or a wobble.
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It did wobble SW. Keep in mind that that satellite loop ended at 5:45 PM CDT. Since then, Irma pretty much stalled per the radar. I think what this is/was is some sort of loop or wobble just in advance of an abrupt turn, which is what the 12Z Euro suggested. A loop or odd wobble just in advance of an abrupt turn due to new steering taking over sometimes occurs. I'll know by no later than 1 AM CDT if the Euro is right.
 
THAT LOWEST TRACK ON THIS MAP WOULD MEAN I WOULD BE IN FOR A LONG TREE CUTTING CEREMONY WITH MY FIRE DEPT. AND NO POWER MOST LIKELY

Brent said:
Think this is the first weather event I've actually wanted to be in alabama for since I moved 3 years ago lol

Still edging west it seems

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Remember Tampa Bay hasn't been impacted directly by a hurricane since 1921. A lot of people assume that because Tampa is in Florida that it is used to major hurricanes, but that is not the case.
 
If you lay over the latitude lines on the visible loop you can definitely pick out the slow wnw job recently
 
Well in GR I placed a marker in center of the eye at about 2310 Z. the eye made a basic "loop around" the marker and now is eye wall is over the marker at about "430" to quote "12 o clock high."..lol So..IMO movement to a more NW track is begining.
 
My uncle lived on Anna Maria island in Bradenton FL, southwest of Tampa for many years, my family vacationed there with him many times when I was growing up. I recall him saying in the 30+ years he lived there that his main level garage flooded once from a tropical storm. He has since moved, but my cousin still lives in Bradenton and she is staying for Irma. I am scared for her, but she seems indifferent. I don't think she understands the intensity of what is coming her way. I have tried numerous times to warn her, but my voice seems to fall on deaf ears :(. My hope at this point is that Irma stays offshore in the gulf, but it's a doubled edged sword as that would give Irma fuel to intensify tremendously.
 
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