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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

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Irma right now
 
DustinWX said:
Then what's stopping it from going to ?


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Think it's reached the edge of the ridge. The SW is just now rounding the bottom of the main trof. The SW is forecast to erode the steering ridge just enough and provide a weakness for the storm to go poleward. As I and others have been saying none of these features are strong enough to dominate the playing field so other more subtle influences play a bigger part, i.e. the ULL to it's SW in the carib is altering the steering flow around the storm, the ridge to the west is altering the steering flow for the SW, the ridge in the Atlantic is stubbornly strong with it's westward extension. Not to mention the upper level high on top of the storm thats been very strong is altering the upper levels directly around the storm. With none of these being dominate it's kind of a stand off. Not your normal trof swoops down and picks up a storm scenario, never has been. just my opinion.
 
I said this earlier but do not be surprised to see Irma not weaken as much if at all when the shear increases. The shear will be mostly south to southwesterly, Irma will speed up moving north. The speed increase will nullify a good bit of the shear. We see this happen all of the time in the north Atlantic.
 
Jackstraw said:
Think it's reached the edge of the ridge. The SW is just now rounding the bottom of the main trof. The SW is forecast to erode the steering ridge just enough and provide a weakness for the storm to go poleward. As I and others have been saying none of these features are strong enough to dominate the playing field so other more subtle influences play a bigger part, i.e. the ULL to it's SW in the carib is altering the steering flow around the storm, the ridge to the west is altering the steering flow for the SW, the ridge in the Atlantic is stubbornly strong with it's westward extension. Not to mention the upper level high on top of the storm thats been very strong is altering the upper levels directly around the storm. With none of these being dominate it's kind of a stand off. Not your normal trof swoops down and picks up a storm scenario, never has been. just my opinion.
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2 minor things -
1) No real change from 2:00 PM officially; and
2) It is about time for now-casting.
Having said as much, my gut tells me more east by about 20 - 40 miles since that looks like the path of least resistance, at this point in time, anyway (sure to change in 3 hours) ...
 
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