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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

deltadog03 said:
so I guess we are going to bash the model that has smashed every other model so far? Yes it was off a bit, but it may not matter.
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I'm not bashing any of the main models. They've all done great job with Irma. People need to keep in mind that models aren't a forecast. They are there for guidance for a forecaster to come up with a forecast. Model's won't be perfect.

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Jackstraw said:
While we've been sitting here watching loops and models and planes and radars looking for the smallest inkling of movement the folks around Cardenas and Mantanzas Cuba have been getting absolutely hammered by this thing.
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and some folks wanna know what's for IMBY as though it's upcoming orgasmic fun ... o_O
 
Out of Atlanta
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pcbjr said:
and some folks wanna know what's for IMBY as though it's upcoming orgasmic fun ... o_O
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I agree. Sure all us weather nerds will track it all the way to my house in west Tn. but all that matters is Florida.
 
honestly
Brent said:
they found 115 mph surface winds already on recon I don't buy it won't strengthen
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NHC is
Brent said:
they found 115 mph surface winds already on recon I don't buy it won't strengthen
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NHC is super confusing me...So we just ignore ALL models deepening this...I honestly think it should get shoved a bit further east. I still favor a GFS/EURO blend.
 
deltadog03 said:
honestly

NHC is

NHC is super confusing me...So we just ignore ALL models deepening this...I honestly think it should get shoved a bit further east. I still favor a GFS/EURO blend.
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I'm not one to bash the NHC usually(they've been stellar here for this) but frankly this is the most bizarre forecast I've ever seen
 
Brent said:
I'm not one to bash the NHC but frankly this is the most bizarre forecast I've ever seen
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me2...I will eat my words...but I would be super shocked if this only gains 5mph higher until landfall. Recon is already finding a stronger storm it appears.
 
deltadog03 said:
honestly

NHC is

NHC is super confusing me...So we just ignore ALL models deepening this...I honestly think it should get shoved a bit further east. I still favor a GFS/EURO blend.
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Ditto, and for my2¢ - this is too early to write off places that are now looking "safe" ... seen it too many times (Punta Gorda ring a bell a while back?)
 
so sat presentation is improving for sure, recon says about 2-3mb lower so far. I think if she can start to really improve then recon will be fun this go around.
 
Already bright white bands are showing up around the eye. It would surprise me if it stayed below a strong 3 or low 4. Looks like they bring it to a strong 3 near the keys.
 
JLL1973 said:
Guys sometimes its just hard for these large hurricanes to restrengthen. I've seen it numerous times
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I agree 100% with you. I just find it hard to believe it won’t strengthen atleat a little more than that
 
Given her current path and speed at 5-7 mph she is in some of the best fuel she has seen and i believe she will at least get back to a 4 if not a strong 4
 
deltadog03 said:
me2...I will eat my words...but I would be super shocked if this only gains 5mph higher until landfall. Recon is already finding a stronger storm it appears.
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I'm as clueless as you are. Irma keeps throwing curveball at us, and that forecast only makes people think it's all weakening from here. I swear if they find cat 4 winds again, everyone will panic more. If it verifies, I guess many will be eating crow. :confused:
 
Trust me guys I’m not bashing, I guess just trying to figure out why they think that
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm as clueless as you are. Irma keeps throwing curveball at us, and that forecast only makes people think it's all weakening from here. I swear if they find cat 4 winds again, everyone will panic more. If it verifies, I guess many will be eating crow. :confused:
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personally I think its a bit stupid to try and downplay... I already know people are gonna say "its only a 3"

just a really weird forecast to me

they also said it had concentric eyewalls reported by recon and used that as evidence it won't strengthen more but recon shows nothing of the sort?
 
Brent said:
personally I think its a bit stupid to try and downplay... I already know people are gonna say "its only a 3"

just a really weird forecast to me

they also said it had concentric eyewalls reported by recon and used that as evidence it won't strengthen more but recon shows nothing of the sort?
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Agree with this. People in Irma's path posting "Hahahahaha? Only a 3?" jokes on Facebook boggles my mind. I hope you still think it's funny at this time tomorrow, but I'm guessing you won't.
 
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