ForsythSnow
Moderator
No doubt she is huge already. The upper level clouds rolled in here around noon and have only become thicker.
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Nam looks a little east for the turn
DadOfJax
Member
When you said "NAM...." I already tossed it.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
The NAM isn't bad in short range, it's the NAM long range that is an absolute joke.
DadOfJax
Member
Joke period
Storm5
Member
Looks like the 18z it's already on a NNW track by hour 12 in northern Florida
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pcbjr
Member
get it out of here any direction you please ...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Once Irma goes up into South GA, the NAM could very well be serious. Remember, it's a mesoscale model, so anything severe it is good with to some degree.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Even vertical up into space? LOL She will be out of your area tomorrow. However, I am sure it will be a long night ahead for you and many in Florida.get it out of here any direction you please ...
NAM has *from what I can tell* has some 100kt+ winds at 850mb pushing into south and mid ga then into NGA
I know its the NAM but your right its a little later on the NW turn into GA. BTW, has some 100kt+ winds at 850mb when it gets in here.
pcbjr
Member
Beam me up, Scotty ...
As to the rest - Yes it will be and is ...
Storm5
Member
NAM is west of 18z at hour 27. Not but a whole lot but it's no doubt west
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W
WeatherLC
Guest
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
What I am trying to say if you couldn't figure it out is that once Irma reaches South GA, the NAM won't be as bad of a model. The NAM is a mesoscale model, so it is better with storms on land. Maybe not so much direction, but rather severe weather, squall band locations, etc. Not sure how you got " Irma isn't going into S GA" out of it.
Yeah the NAM probably won't be as bad with Irma once it gets deeper into its domain and transitions to a cold core extratropical cyclone, with most of the convection and precipitation asymmetrical weighted to the west and north of the storm, because the model is largely incapable of resolving warm core processes ongoing in the inner cores of tropical cyclones, but tends to be a little better with mid-latitude cyclones.
Patsy Bergeron
Member
Thanks for all of the information over the past few days. Lived in NOLA all my life but never thought I'd be model watching up here in Birmingham! Not really sure what to expect here but regardless of the weather I'll be at work tomorrow. Everyone stay safe!
RollTide18
Member
Irma is a huge storm, expanding wind field, gonna feel like a winter day tomorrow with a howling north wind, is this the south's Sandy? Lol
The 12km and 3km are actually pretty nasty around here if this run is right...from what I can tell, about 45kt sustained winds and about 100kts at 850mb around here tomorrow.