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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

NHC keeps Irma a TS longer inland on the latest advisory
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DustinWX said:
How is this thing going to be a tropical storm so far inland if it's going to weaken quickly over Florida now? I don't understand


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It's the gradient of the high over the NE and Irma coming together! I feel like it's been said a few times, we know it's going to be " just a depression" but still gonna be windy
 
DustinWX said:
How is this thing going to be a tropical storm so far inland if it's going to weaken quickly over Florida now? I don't understand


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Yeah by the time it gets to us it should be low grade ST at best. If it continue to weaken this fast
 
DustinWX said:
How is this thing going to be a tropical storm so far inland if it's going to weaken quickly over Florida now? I don't understand


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I think someone mentioned it transitioning to Extratropical and the wind field expanding
 
I hope that Sonde didn't hit Mike in the head!
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 20:56Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 31
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 20:38:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°06'N 81°47'W (26.1N 81.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 37 statute miles (60 km) to the S (173°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,546m (8,353ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 19° at 69kts (From the NNE at ~ 79.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the W (277°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 939mb (27.73 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,028m (9,934ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest, SW
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SSE (168°) from the flight level center at 20:43:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 45° at 9kts (From the NE at 10mph)

 
Jackstraw said:
I hope that Sonde didn't hit Mike in the head!
roduct: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 20:56Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF98-5307
Storm Number & Year: 11 in 2017
Storm Name: Irma (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 31
Observation Number: 04 ( See all messages of this type for this mission. )
A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 20:38:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26°06'N 81°47'W (26.1N 81.7833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 37 statute miles (60 km) to the S (173°) from Fort Myers, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,546m (8,353ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 80kts (~ 92.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the W (270°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 19° at 69kts (From the NNE at ~ 79.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the W (277°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 939mb (27.73 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,039m (9,970ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,028m (9,934ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest, SW
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 93kts (~ 107.0mph) which was observed 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SSE (168°) from the flight level center at 20:43:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 45° at 9kts (From the NE at 10mph)

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:
That's good and well but it cannot make the next point without a turn within an hour. Just not possible, no matter what NHC believes.
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It's not that far off from their track as is it's riding just inland of the coast . Again obviously a 25-50 shift either way has impacts down the road . That's been repeated 100 times already but there is nothing to indicate a more due northerly track vs NW once it gets to northern Florida . The " shifts east " today are all within the margin of error , nothing dramatic

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