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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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How bad could it potentially get in Atlanta, if it pushes on across FL and up the west coast? Wouldn't it degrade to just TS by the time it went that far inland?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Hit just a little east of 12Z. I feel that OTS is down to 5 percent at this point. Have to see, but the models have wobbled west.
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I thought there was a small chance that run. I got excited at a possible OTS option again. :(
 
pcbjr said:
Maybe I'm brain dead (and you don't need to agree with me) but what west trend are folks talking about (?) - 18Z sure looks east from this end. What am I missing?
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There isn't a west trend, it may go slightly further west vs it's previous runs. Margin of errors, give or take. Either way, FL, GA, SC and NC will see impacts from Irma. The coasts from east FL to SC will see the greatest impacts.
 
Kinda maybe undergoing or gone through a half hearted ERC? The inner eyewall looks like it collapsed on the goes 16 sat. MIMIC and radar have the look also. If it is, the sat loop right now is a first for me in such detail. Apologize if it's been mentioned already (or I'm wrongo_O) in the "hurricane" of posts :weenie:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2017_11L/web/displayGifsBy12hr_08.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=JUA-N0Q-1-48
 
pcbjr said:
Maybe I'm brain dead (and you don't need to agree with me) but what west trend are folks talking about (?) - 18Z sure looks east from this end. What am I missing?
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Maybe im wrong about the west thing. So many models run to go.;)
 
Pretty much noise on 18z IMO Crazy how Irma traverses the to the FL Straits. Path of almost perfect least resistance.
 
pcbjr said:
Maybe I'm brain dead (and you don't need to agree with me) but what west trend are folks talking about (?) - 18Z sure looks east from this end. What am I missing?
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For the last 12 or so runs minus a couple the gfs has been in the same general vicinity

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If this was a snowstorm, I'd be in the sweet spot. I'd be on the western side of the low the entire event.
 
WeatherWatch said:
If this was a snowstorm, I'd be in the sweet spot. I'd be on the western side of the low the entire event.
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I fully expect this winter's thermals to look like these
gfs_T850_seus_21.png
 
I was hoping that Irma would scoot northeast and then usher in much colder air on the backside but apparently not. Looks like next week is going to be HOT !
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
But NC is on the NE side so you would think heavier rain amounts
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I would assume the speed and how far Northeast we are of the actual Center would be part of that but also models usually are awful with tropical system rain totals. Although with Harvey they were halfway right I think that was due to the fact that it just sat there for so long they had no choice but to spit out those totals

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Cary_Snow95 said:
But NC is on the NE side so you would think heavier rain amounts
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You would think so but it's a pretty rapid movement on the gfs and euro. Then you have both models showing a rapid ET with a lot of dry air being ingested on the west and south side and only a single band NE of the center. Conversely it's initially riding a top a wedge airmass which should lead to a lot of stratiform rain ahead of the system. Then as the system moves north NC gets into a move feed from the atlantic and possibly some convective elements. A lot at play on both sides

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It's still a very intricate set of details and quite a few players on the field that could determine the ultimate track of Irma. I've been on the east of Fl then north toward CHS track for a while but it won't take much to get this farther west or east. The SW atlantic ridge, NE trough, short wave over the Rockies, and the shortwave moving into the midsouth are all moving parts in this equation.

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SD said:
You would think so but it's a pretty rapid movement on the gfs and euro. Then you have both models showing a rapid ET with a lot of dry air being ingested on the west and south side and only a single band NE of the center. Conversely it's initially riding a top a wedge airmass which should lead to a lot of stratiform rain ahead of the system. Then as the system moves north NC gets into a move feed from the atlantic and possibly some convective elements. A lot at play on both sides

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I'm also curious how much the wind field will expand as it makes landfall, especially since it will be transitioning to ET system. When Hugo came through Charlotte I barely got a cloud in the sky, zero effects and then Irene a few years ago we were getting strong TS winds with some H gust well before it ever made landfall due to its expading windfield.

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metwannabe said:
I'm also curious how much the wind field will expand as it makes landfall, especially since it will be transitioning to ET system. When Hugo came through Charlotte I barely got a cloud in the sky, zero effects and then Irene a few years ago we were getting strong TS winds with some H gust well before it ever made landfall due to its expading windfield.

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Understand the concern - but don't get the cart before the horse - we are still about 3 days before a CONUS hit (if it happens)
 
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