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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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As Larry mentioned , yet another west / SW shift on the 00z eps

12z eps

00z eps

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Recon's first pass through Irma's center find maximum surface winds ~ 125 knots in the southeast quadrant with a minimum MSLP of ~ 929mb w/ 15 kt wind, thus about 928-927mb. Ouch.
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Just one run but yeah gfs up the east coast of Fl into SC..

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metwannabe said:
Just one run but yeah gfs up the east coast of Fl into SC..

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Click to expand...

The surge up through the GA/SC coasts would be unimaginable in that run. Not only do you have a high presource producing onshore gradient wind, but that northern eyewall would rake the coast. While it wouldn't strengthen much when it moved offshore, the winds would definitely respond to much less friction.

That was a horrible run, but luckily the 6z GFS is known to be a little different and I think it was east of 0z yesterday as well.
 
Arcc said:
The surge up through the GA/SC coasts would be unimaginable in that run. Not only do you have a high presource producing onshore gradient wind, but that northern eyewall would rake the coast. While it wouldn't strengthen much when it moved offshore, the winds would definitely respond to much less friction.

That was a horrible run, but luckily the 6z GFS is known to be a little different and I think it was east of 0z yesterday as well.
Click to expand...

One can only hope that was a bad run


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Arcc said:
The surge up through the GA/SC coasts would be unimaginable in that run. Not only do you have a high presource producing onshore gradient wind, but that northern eyewall would rake the coast. While it wouldn't strengthen much when it moved offshore, the winds would definitely respond to much less friction.

That was a horrible run, but luckily the 6z GFS is known to be a little different and I think it was east of 0z yesterday as well.
Click to expand...
I agree especially since the EPS actually shifted a little west last night so I doubt this run has merit but I thought someone said the UKmet was a little east also... if there are going to be any adjustments back east in the models I think today would be the day to see it so we shall see

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This is absolutely insane!!! Irma is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic wrt wind since Hurricanes Dean & Felix in 2007 and is on a very prestigious and unfortunately, deadly list of past hurricanes that reached this intensity...
7:45 AM AST Tue Sep 5
Location: 16.7°N 57.7°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 929 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph
 
One thing I want to see and watch today is does it gain latitude for 1, and that 2nd shortwave has been dropping in further west On the models for when it does make the turn
 
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