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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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I don't like seeing the GFS and Euro both showing a NC landfall. I know the GFS can be horrible, but both of them showing it is very concerning.
What had the HWRF model been showing? I know it did well with Hermine, and a other model that starts with a H did, too.

The HWRF model only runs out 126 hours but it takes Irma near or just north of the Antilles and Puerto Rico as a category 4 or 5 hurricane and it suggests Irma may grow appreciably in size in about 48-72 hours as it enters an environment with warm SSTs, higher upper level moisture, and will continue to age through eye wall replacement cycles, with all of these factors acting to expand the storm. Fortunately this means it would have to expend some energy on becoming larger as opposed to intensifying for a time, but this also means impacts may be spread over a considerably larger area...
 
I just looked at all the models and.... oh man. Let's hope for a change for the better after those runs, or some may learn the horrors that many in Florida face. I don't like seeing a strong hurricane inland over Raleigh or near it per the Euro. Here is a totally different scenario per the NAVGEM. It would be worth watching it too, as it seemed to do well with Hermine last year I believe. Phil definitely will be against this model and I am too, but it's a plausible solution.:confused:

JMA was a FL hit also.
 
Euro has the center of Irma directly over metwannabe at 234

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I saw, had the eye right over my house.... I'll take pictures. Seriously though I feel safe no way that works out, no model is that good 9 days out. However the GFS would be a disaster too, almost right over you and moving fast enough strong winds would be a major issue... Fran like as you mentioned, Hazel like as well.
 
Not to mention the Heat content goes us dramatically in the path of Irma. Web has been talking about this a lot lately.
 
My gut tells me this isn't through adjusting SW, good for us NC folks but bad for many others..... I may be completely wrong but I don't see this heading ots just based off the trends of that trough. Stupid trough may pull Irma just far enough north to miss the shredder but won't stick around to protect us
 
I saw, had the eye right over my house.... I'll take pictures. Seriously though I feel safe no way that works out, no model is that good 9 days out. However the GFS would be a disaster too, almost right over you and moving fast enough strong winds would be a major issue... Fran like as you mentioned, Hazel like as well.
This is just not acceptable. Call me crazy but I'm going to be pricing generators today.
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This is just not acceptable. Call me crazy but I'm going to be pricing generators today.
86d926a0a8d48ba756a4a90ba148a9f3.jpg


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Well my dad has a generator think I'll price chainsaws so I can cut my way to his house..... that's insane
 
This is just not acceptable. Call me crazy but I'm going to be pricing generators today.
86d926a0a8d48ba756a4a90ba148a9f3.jpg


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You know what they say about being in the bullseye... It wouldn't be bad to have a generator on hand since snowstorms and ice storms can knock power out too. It is insane that the GFS gave you hurricane force winds last run though.
 
Still diving hard SW at the moment

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I'm sure there's still an escape route out to sea somewhere! Some model is showing!?
 
12z ATCF maintains Irma's intensity as a 100 knot category 3 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 969mb. Hurricane Hunters will begin sampling the storm at 5pm eastern today & continuously thereafter... Hurricane Watches may be hoisted before long in the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.
 
12z ATCF maintains Irma's intensity as a 100 knot category 3 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 969mb. Hurricane Hunters will begin sampling the storm at 5pm eastern today & continuously thereafter... Hurricane Watches may be hoisted before long in the northern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico.

We also should begin to anticipate intermediate, 3 hourly advisories to begin being issued here before long as Irma encroaches on the Lesser Antilles
 
Yeah we should be thankful that's not going to happen, in that case the sub 900mb GFS forecasts probably wouldn't have been outlandish...
I'm still not entirely sure it won't get below the 900 mb threshold. There is plenty of evidence against it though as you have stated. I can easily say the GFS is wrong because of what you have stated, but the HMON is what keeps me uncertain. It is still sending it down below 890 mb and has for a few runs. My only thought would be it suffers from issues like the NAM and GFS do pressure wise.
 
This is just not acceptable. Call me crazy but I'm going to be pricing generators today.
86d926a0a8d48ba756a4a90ba148a9f3.jpg


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Crazy! It's still 8 days out!
It's like you going to buy a sled because the Euro shows you getting 24"+!
On 2nd thought, get the generator! I have family in Roxboro, and I want them to stay safe!
 
I'm still not entirely sure it won't get below the 900 mb threshold. There is plenty of evidence against it though as you have stated. I can easily say the GFS is wrong because of what you have stated, but the HMON is what keeps me uncertain. It is still sending it down below 890 mb and has for a few runs. My only thought would be it suffers from issues like the NAM and GFS do pressure wise.

The HMON's current depiction of irma is likely very unrealistic, even at 3 hours out the pressure is already about 15 mb too low compared w/ the NHC advisories. What also makes a sub 900mb hurricane in the Bahamas harder to believe aside from the GFS' known biases with very strong tropical cyclones and lack of historical support, the tropopause height is a little lower in the Bahamas and southwestern Atlantic as compared with the northwestern Caribbean. This essentially means there's less room to evacuate mass in the troposphere w/ a lower tropopause. Even if the underlying oceanic heat content and sea surface temperatures and background environment were exactly the same in the Bahamas and the NW Caribbean, the NW Caribbean would still be capable of producing a stronger tropical cyclone because of this...

hmon_mslp_wind_11L_2.png
 
Better look at the eps
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The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward.

** Edit: Not too long after I posted this, I realized it had an important error that makes the analysis flat out wrong. I later posted about what I did wrong here:

http://southernwx.com/community/threads/major-hurricane-irma.227/page-49#post-41253
 
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The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward.

At this point we can certainly hope for the sake of the US in the short term that this trends towards Hispaniola, unfortunately a hurricane of this magnitude would be a cataclysmic disaster there esp for Haiti & once Irma emerged from interaction from Hispaniola and/or Cuba in such a scenario it would assuredly be headed for the Gulf of Mexico :/
 
The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward.
Nice find Larry !

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The 11AM NHC coordinates are 17.7N, 48.4W. That means that she is located to the south of all 50 0Z EPS members! ALL of them are between 18N and 20.5N when at 48.4W. This is a very significant indicator and, therefore, I'm fully expecting further SW adjustments in the EPS mean and probably also in the more volatile Euro operational as well as general model consensus as we move forward.




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I guess you can say that 10% just went up a little

Yeah, Accu, yourself, and the other at or not too far from Gulf coast folks had better not be complacent right now.

Meanwhile, I just read that Webber said she is well north of its forecast point from the 11 AM advisory. That's interesting and needs to be considered though it could just be due to a deceptive wobble as he implies. So, I'll probably reassess its position in relation to the 50 0Z EPS members within a couple of hours to see if it is then still to the south of all 50 members.
 
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