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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Snowfan

Snowfan

When NW trend?
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The GFS and the Euro has been developing this wave and has been mentioned by the NHC.
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for slow development by the middle of next
week while the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean on Sunday. Environmental conditions may
be conducive for slow development by the middle of next week while
the wave moves westward about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
A tropical wave over western Africa is forecast to emerge over the
far eastern Atlantic Ocean tonight or early Monday. Environmental
conditions appear to be conducive for slow development by the middle
of next week while the wave moves westward about 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
The Euro's consistency with this wave has been nothing short of remarkable. For at least the past 15 runs in a row (if not more) the Euro has developed this AEW into a TC in some, way, shape or form this week in the east-central Atlantic, with more recent runs obviously becoming more aggressive with its future in the western Atlantic.
output_44qvgr.gif
 
NHC raising the odds of development to 40% in the next 5 days...
1. A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development
of this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
Long way out and I'd probably bet on ots but the euro ensembles look interesting

received_1508644822552169.png
 
^ I may be remembering incorrectly, but didn't Mike V. earlier in August say that he thought early Sept would be quiet due to MJO and/or the lack of a CCKW?
Like Brent, I'm thinking recurve likely east of the CONUS as of now.
 
The eastern MDR SSTs have caught fire thanks to prolonged anomalous westerly winds in the wake of an MJO pulse now over the IO which is evolving into a quasi-stationary wave...

cdas-sflux_ssta_atltropics_1.png
 
Chances for development in the next 5 days up to 50%
1. A tropical wave located near the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph over the
tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
NHC has raised the chances of TCG to 70% in the next 5 days
1. A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located just
offshore of the coast of western Africa is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. This system has become better organized
since yesterday, and a tropical depression could form in a few days
over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast to move westward at
15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during the next several
days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible in
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
If this look holds true though, it will be hard for a storm to come close to the EC. As always, still worth the watch, every TC is.
ac2531211a9cadc850200bfe8a007bc4.jpg


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NHC continues to raise the odds of development for 93L... Now up to 80% in the next 5 days....

1. A tropical wave and associated low pressure area located a few
hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
in two or three days over the eastern Atlantic. The low is forecast
to move westward at 15 to 20 mph over the tropical Atlantic during
the next several days. Regardless of development, heavy rain is
possible in portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
ForsythSnow said:
HWRF and HMON really liking fast formation.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I think they're developing this unrealistically too fast, it may be best for us to wait until an actual center forms before we place much credence into the higher resolution hurricane models like the HWRF & HMON... It's a large, broad AEW that will take at least 2-3 days to consolidate into a tropical depression/minimal TS, however conditions appear at least marginally conducive for some gradual development in the eastern Atlantic before they become even more favorable as it nears the longitude of the Antilles.
 
Brent said:
That's one huge ridge too gonna be a battle

I forsee some long nights ahead of
Click to expand...
Good point, if that battle slows that trough down then.....dang not a good week to try to kick the caffeine habit
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah that is one deep trough and it should protect the EC but dang.....
ecmwf_z500aNorm_watl_11.png
Click to expand...
All 3 of those features are strong per that frame. We have a powerful fall trough with a strong high and a strong hurricane there. It is a bit far out, but I feel confident in that trough existing at a relative time to that. What I lack confidence in is of course the storm. It could be sent further south, into the Caribbean and result in the trough missing it and it going elsewhere, or it could get picked up elsewhere dependent on the high size. Too far out but interesting to look at.
 
yeah we're talking pure fantasy land for any kind of US threat

and odds still favor OTS especially if it gains significant latitude in the coming days(especially if it organizes quickly)
 
Euro ensembles still raises eyebrows, at the very least probably a recurve west of Bermuda like Gert

21191283_1509364792480172_2036414999_o.png
 
metwannabe said:
Euro getting this thing pretty far west....should turn ots in time but still
Click to expand...

I agree. Even if the 12Z Euro verified closely and it got that far west, it would very likely later recurve between 70 and 75 W as per what the 12Z EPS shows as the E US trough doesn't appear to be going away quickly. The WAR wouldn't be able to dislodge the trough per the EPS mean, with which I agree. Instead, its westward move comes to a halt just after day 10.

This is from an analysis I did awhile back:

2) 1960-2002 (with wx satellites):

a) I counted 21 CONUS hits from 125 storms that first became at least a TD east of 50W and south of 20N, which means the hit % for these was 17% or about one in six.

b) Of these 125 storms, 85 first became at least a TD east of 40W. Out of those 85, I counted 14 that hit the U.S., making the hit % for those which first formed east of 40W near 16% or just under one in six (i.e., not much different).

From another study I did awhile back:
The % U.S. hit rate for each month of formation of TCs East of 50W and S of 20N was as follows: 0% for each of June, Oct., and Nov.; 25% for July, 26% for Aug., and 17% for Sept. So, a C.V. STORM THAT FORMS DURING AUG. HAS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER CHANCE TO HIT THE U.S. ( ABOUT 1 IN 4) THAN ONE THAT FORMS DURING SEPT. (ONLY ABOUT 1 IN 6). July is also relatively high like Aug.

93L is progged to become a TD either in very late Aug or very early Sep. So, I'd call its chances of hitting the CONUS about 1 in 5 (splitting the difference) if ignoring models. Being in cold neutral to possible weak Nina probably doesn't sway the chances too much. Had it been mod to strong Nina, the chances would be raised while lowered for Nino.

Since the models are pretty strongly favoring a recurve E of the CONUS, I think the odds are probably a bit lower than 1 in 5....say something like 1 in 7 as of now. That's my take anyway.
 
^Nice wall of protection progged from the E US trough should it even get that far west as the wall isn't then going anywhere. So, I think keeping it at only near a 1 in 7 chance for a US hit is pretty reasonable with the odds to be adjusted up or down as we move ahead.
 
pcbjr said:
A Floyd scenario would be quite nice, thank you ... :cool:
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Nooooooooooo, that was an absolute nightmare due to the scare leading to massive evacuations in FL/GA/SC/NC. Please no, not another Floyd! Plus NC got very bad flooding from rain.
 
GaWx said:
Nooooooooooo, that was an absolute nightmare due to the scare leading to massive evacuations in FL/GA/SC/NC. Please no, not another Floyd! Plus NC got very bad flooding from rain.
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I said further east ... :cool: - just want to keep everything away from our back yard, Larry (power of positive thinking ... o_O), and very eastern NC got flooded, so something more east that gives NC some non-flooding rain may not be a bad thing ...
 
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