accu35
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Wow!! That right there shows you, that this has plenty of time to change.Low locations from the 12z eps
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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)
- Thread starter Snowfan
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DadOfJax
Member
Low locations from the 12z eps
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I have been screaming gulf for days...i think its still in play.
If Of course it does . Those western eps members take Irma right over Cuba thus allowing for the storm to weaken and move further west by missing the weakness. Given its current path that seems really unlikely
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So the most likely scenario as of right now is for Irma to miss FL to the east and then hit GA or SC ?
accu35
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Agreed.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like right now most the models have it hitting SE Florida and then up to Savannah or Charleston. Of course, it's been changing every day.
Xtreme Weather
Member
I need to read up more into the friction by land and the effects that it can have on movement of TS's. I have heard it before but never really looked into it... Not the weakening part but the adjustments to path possibly...i believe it can in some storms cause them to bend back to the left or NW for some reason
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I lived in Gastonia at the time, it was unreal! Trees down everywhere, no power for ten days! The devastation from 80-90mph winds on trees , is amaZing !!
If the whole building gets flattened, she will be on the first floor! I'd watch one more day , if nothing changes, I'd leave Macon, if it was me!
That would be apocalyptic around here, really!Post landfall track almost identicalt to the gfs
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If you look at some of the EPS and GEFS members they do bend back to the west after about 36 hours. Not sure the cause is exactly what your talking about
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He's still missing it to his east!!J HS rainspecial
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JB just put on FB, he expects Irma to get to 900 MB on Friday or Saturday !
911.3 MB on N eyewall on this pass, was lowest I saw on dropsond reading
Snow_chaser
Member
Sorry if it's been explained, but why does a stronger storm feel the tug north more than a weaker one? I would think the stronger it is, the harder it would be to get it pulled
pcbjr
Member
It's like two big grizzly bears wanting to mate - nothing is going to stop them ... whereas if one is (how should I put this?) - a whimp, there's going to be some dancing around before the love starts ...
18z tropical models
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Brent
Member
3. The threat of direct hurricane impacts in Florida over the
weekend and early next week has increased. Hurricane watches could
be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula
on Thursday.
The 12Z guidance has generally shifted slightly
westward, closer to the previous NHC forecast. As a result, little
overall change was made to the 4-5 day track forecast.
weekend and early next week has increased. Hurricane watches could
be issued for portions of the Florida Keys and the Florida peninsula
on Thursday.
The 12Z guidance has generally shifted slightly
westward, closer to the previous NHC forecast. As a result, little
overall change was made to the 4-5 day track forecast.
Brent
Member
pcbjr
Member
A 50 mile error to the west would decimate Orlando, Ocala, Gainesville and JAX ...
50 miles to the east and there would be a lot of joy ...
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