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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

You can see the escape path develop over previous runs. Weaker Atlantic ridge, stronger trough.

4433EB6C-4292-42F6-A342-B0CC95848CDC.gif
 
KyloG said:
You can see the escape path develop over previous runs. Weaker Atlantic ridge, stronger trough.

View attachment 23531
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Yeah it seems we are finally getting some consensus on a hard right and due east exit. Pretty big shift from previous camps so we will.see if it holds......I suspect it will with that ridge breaking down like that.
 
Shaggy said:
Yeah it seems we are finally getting some consensus on a hard right and due east exit. Pretty big shift from previous camps so we will.see if it holds......I suspect it will with that ridge breaking down like that.
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Still think it could impact coastal GA/SC though. Wouldn't take much changes, but climbing north and impacting the MA/NE looks less likely now.
 
The trend of the 6Z EPS is to just about take off the table of a stall followed by left turn into N FL to SC and to bring in a new slight possibility for a new scenario due to further south trends: a loop back to the FL Straits area. The 0Z EPS started ramping up this chance and the 6Z has about 15% of its members with a S to SW loop back WAY south. Regardless, the heavy favorite for now remains missing the US altogether.
 
GaWx said:
The trend of the 6Z EPS is to just about take off the table of a stall followed by left turn into N FL to SC and to bring in a new slight possibility for a new scenario due to further south trends: a loop back to the FL Straits area. The 0Z EPS started ramping up this chance and the 6Z has about 15% of its members with a S to SW loop back WAY south. Regardless, the heavy favorite for now remains missing the US altogether.
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So the EPS has some mebers looping back? Sounds like the ridge builds back from the west strong and fast enough that it would get pulled back in on those models instead of going OTS.
 
ForsythSnow said:
So the EPS has some mebers looping back? Sounds like the ridge builds back from the west strong and fast enough that it would get pulled back in on those models instead of going OTS.
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Yeah, we now need to see if this is going to come in on the southern side of the envelope of possibilities while east of FL. That would bring in the risk it loops back to the SW toward far S FL/Straits. IF that slight chance scenario were to happen, then it could even become a Gulf storm. Other than this slight possibility, it should stay OTS.
 
ForsythSnow said:
So the EPS has some mebers looping back? Sounds like the ridge builds back from the west strong and fast enough that it would get pulled back in on those models instead of going OTS.
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Hurricane Jeanne like. After Michael/Florence/Matthew/Dorian over the past 12-24 months, feel like we are due for some fleeting TS that harmlessly recurve.

14-km EPS Global North America 500 hPa Height Anom 96.pngcompday.u29p6mvtOo.gif
 
145635_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 74.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
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The latest indication is that the main center is likely forming to the east of models. If so, that would just about seal an easy OTS later today and we could relax this weekend without having to sweat another one. We could definitely use this relaxation after the Dorian related stress and fatigue that folks were complaining about.

By the way, please ignore the very lost 12Z GFS riding up the FL coast as nothing like that is going to happen from all indications/nowcasting. Therefore, the entire run is close to worthless.
 
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GaWx said:
Yeah, we now need to see if this is going to come in on the southern side of the envelope of possibilities while east of FL. That would bring in the risk it loops back to the SW toward far S FL/Straits. IF that slight chance scenario were to happen, then it could even become a Gulf storm. Other than this slight possibility, it should stay OTS.
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Yep that is what will happen. It will loop around, with a consensus on hitting FL only for it to go OTS for good.
 
12Z Euro was initialized pretty well (maybe far enough east). 12Z Euro hour 42 map strongly suggests that this run will be even further from FL and easily staying OTS. I think we'll be able to relax about this soon. Let's see.
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro was initialized pretty well (maybe far enough east). 12Z Euro hour 42 map strongly suggests that this run will be even further from FL and easily staying OTS. I think we'll be able to relax about this soon. Let's see.
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Confirmed
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro was initialized pretty well (maybe far enough east). 12Z Euro hour 42 map strongly suggests that this run will be even further from FL and easily staying OTS. I think we'll be able to relax about this soon. Let's see.
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We might want to wait until it forms to go that far....
Add: no models said anything about it stalling....I think its stationary right now.
 
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