Brent
Member
Most seem to be headed OTS barring something bizarre
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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto
- Thread starter GeorgiaGirl
- Start date
Joaquin 2.0 but no rain for nc/sc, fml
Shaggy
Member
Yeah it seems we are finally getting some consensus on a hard right and due east exit. Pretty big shift from previous camps so we will.see if it holds......I suspect it will with that ridge breaking down like that.
Still think it could impact coastal GA/SC though. Wouldn't take much changes, but climbing north and impacting the MA/NE looks less likely now.
The trend of the 6Z EPS is to just about take off the table of a stall followed by left turn into N FL to SC and to bring in a new slight possibility for a new scenario due to further south trends: a loop back to the FL Straits area. The 0Z EPS started ramping up this chance and the 6Z has about 15% of its members with a S to SW loop back WAY south. Regardless, the heavy favorite for now remains missing the US altogether.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
So the EPS has some mebers looping back? Sounds like the ridge builds back from the west strong and fast enough that it would get pulled back in on those models instead of going OTS.
Yeah, we now need to see if this is going to come in on the southern side of the envelope of possibilities while east of FL. That would bring in the risk it loops back to the SW toward far S FL/Straits. IF that slight chance scenario were to happen, then it could even become a Gulf storm. Other than this slight possibility, it should stay OTS.
Hurricane Jeanne like. After Michael/Florence/Matthew/Dorian over the past 12-24 months, feel like we are due for some fleeting TS that harmlessly recurve.
The latest indication is that the main center is likely forming to the east of models. If so, that would just about seal an easy OTS later today and we could relax this weekend without having to sweat another one. We could definitely use this relaxation after the Dorian related stress and fatigue that folks were complaining about.
By the way, please ignore the very lost 12Z GFS riding up the FL coast as nothing like that is going to happen from all indications/nowcasting. Therefore, the entire run is close to worthless.
By the way, please ignore the very lost 12Z GFS riding up the FL coast as nothing like that is going to happen from all indications/nowcasting. Therefore, the entire run is close to worthless.
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Yep that is what will happen. It will loop around, with a consensus on hitting FL only for it to go OTS for good.
pcbjr
Member
so the cone of a no-namer bends east ... not at all surprising as that is the general way things work ...
12Z Euro was initialized pretty well (maybe far enough east). 12Z Euro hour 42 map strongly suggests that this run will be even further from FL and easily staying OTS. I think we'll be able to relax about this soon. Let's see.
Confirmed
pcbjr
Member
am not and have not been looking for more rain, but frankly was willing to give up Saturday for a soaker if it meant in the LR that FS (@ForsythSnow) and his lake got a good dose ... oh well ...
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Henry2326
Member
We might want to wait until it forms to go that far....
Add: no models said anything about it stalling....I think its stationary right now.
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pcbjr
Member
Pitiful ... in a good way IMHO ...
On the 12Z EPS run, I counted about 5 actual TCs (10%) that go into the Gulf and about 6 (12%) that either hit or skim somewhere within NC to NE US. I can’t see the N.C.-NE US option now but I won’t yet completely eliminate in my mind the loop to S FL and/or Gulf. Regardless, the overwhelming best chance per the EPS remains OTS.
Henry2326
Member
Actually it was stationary at 2:00 pm. Per the NHC.
Near the Bahamas.....quite uncanny.....
Also, the discussion is quite interesting...,
"In this advisory, the initial position is a point near
the middle of of the trough, but not quite as far east as the
convective area. The initial intensity remains 25 kt."
I wouldn't say we quite have a handle on this one yet.....that's quite vague...but the cone is pretty.
Near the Bahamas.....quite uncanny.....
Also, the discussion is quite interesting...,
"In this advisory, the initial position is a point near
the middle of of the trough, but not quite as far east as the
convective area. The initial intensity remains 25 kt."
I wouldn't say we quite have a handle on this one yet.....that's quite vague...but the cone is pretty.
accu35
Member
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The cone sucks, I need rain lol
Shaggy
Member
Still looks like a couple of spins in there right now. Maybe the gfs is correct in keeping this disorganized?
I just checked a different source, Weathernerds, and it actually shows not just 5 but 7 of the 51 12Z EPS members (14%) with something going into the Gulf from NINE, itself. So, we can't ignore the chance. But still an overwhelming majority recurve safely OTS.
accu35
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If this system stays weak and disorganize, could it push more west? Could we get a track that involves Florida and maybe eastern gulf back in play? I just want rain man, lol. I guess I'm wish casting
pcbjr
Member
Not replying for Larry ...
Short answer is "Yes" it could ...
if it actually ever becomes a system ...
Brent
Member
No more potential cyclone
Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019
An Air Force plane extensively investigated the disturbance near the
Bahamas during the past several hours, and in the last portion of
the mission, the crew was able to locate a center of circulation,
although weak, near the convection. The center was a little bit
to the east of the previous estimates. Satellite images also
indicate that the cloud pattern has become a little better organized
and Dvorak estimates are T2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. On this basis, the disturbance has been classified as
a tropical depression with 25 kt winds.
Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019
An Air Force plane extensively investigated the disturbance near the
Bahamas during the past several hours, and in the last portion of
the mission, the crew was able to locate a center of circulation,
although weak, near the convection. The center was a little bit
to the east of the previous estimates. Satellite images also
indicate that the cloud pattern has become a little better organized
and Dvorak estimates are T2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. On this basis, the disturbance has been classified as
a tropical depression with 25 kt winds.
pcbjr
Member
Brent
Member
Continues to get further away from Florida
Henry2326
Member
Yup....I'm sure more surprises in store. My fear is that it spins up sooner and and doesn't follow the script.....as they usually do.So surprised ... LOL ...
Now a H possibility doing a loopy ...
Henry2326
Member
Uncertainty abounds...
"Due to the reformation of the apparent center, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 305
degrees at 7 kt. A weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic
is forecast to develop, and this pattern should steer the system
slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3 days, an
eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system to recurve
away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The track guidance has
shifted to the east again, and this shift is larger due to the
eastward formation of the center. Consequently, the NHC track
forecast was adjusted in that direction, but it remains on the
western edge of the guidance envelope."
"Due to the reformation of the apparent center, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 305
degrees at 7 kt. A weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic
is forecast to develop, and this pattern should steer the system
slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3 days, an
eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system to recurve
away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The track guidance has
shifted to the east again, and this shift is larger due to the
eastward formation of the center. Consequently, the NHC track
forecast was adjusted in that direction, but it remains on the
western edge of the guidance envelope."
Accu wishcasting? No way, you never do that.
But it is all good. Yes, the EPS is saying that is an (as of now) low probability option, which I’m sure won’t stop you from now getting excited about it lol. All you want to hear is that Gulf has not been eliminated by the EPS. You should be a very happy man now! JHS
Member
We really need a weak version of this system into SC. Not a drop of rain here today and no sign of any anytime soon. I say we see 90 degree temps into November this year unless a major hurricane can change things.
pcbjr
Member
Keep broadcasting the good news on LWBN (the Larry Weather Broadcast Network) ... nothin' fake there ...