• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

It’s no wonder why the GFS is weak/showing what it’s showing (weak gulf solution), it’s saying that one, more southwestern center of circulation will remain the dominant one hence it would probably have a better chance of moving out into the gulf, the ICON/EURO on the other hand has that center more to the East that wins out, which make more sense and would mean a more northernly jog into the Gulf Stream, in this setup it all depends on where a blowup of Convection develops allowing sfc vorticity hence a new center some miles east or west make the huge difference, I’m thinking something in between all this mess, there’s also other things impacting this like the ridge and ULL 94479374-ED1B-4F76-A320-44834324F35A.jpeg4CAB8124-83DA-4B7A-9324-F3A7ED0666FE.jpeg
 
12Z UKMET: staying OTS as mentioned. That's quite interesting for a model with an overall left bias. Intriguing really.

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 25.6N 76.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 36 25.6N 76.6W 1008 32
1200UTC 14.09.2019 48 26.7N 78.0W 1007 32
0000UTC 15.09.2019 60 28.3N 79.2W 1001 44
1200UTC 15.09.2019 72 29.7N 79.7W 991 61
0000UTC 16.09.2019 84 30.8N 79.3W 973 69
1200UTC 16.09.2019 96 31.7N 78.5W 964 72
0000UTC 17.09.2019 108 32.2N 77.4W 948 76
1200UTC 17.09.2019 120 32.7N 76.1W 937 88
0000UTC 18.09.2019 132 33.1N 74.3W 931 93
1200UTC 18.09.2019 144 33.5N 72.2W 930 89
 
ForsythSnow said:
Literally its adding insult to injury. Why does the icon have to do this to us?
Click to expand...

Welp dry ground = somewhat drier air/higher temps so it would make it harder for a storm to barrel in and max high temps would likely verify higher, that sucks ?
 
Since it’s a weaker storm vs what Dorian was, 250mb trough in GA is pulling/tugging it in a bit more effectively 39816874-DACF-466B-8060-D0F8933CCB04.jpeg
 
If we are lucky euro will trend east more and catch the next storm and tow it out to sea too! 2 for 1 from Humberto (the storm that replaced Hugo)!
 
Henry2326 said:
12z CMC moves east on and off coast through FL. Let's hope nothing spins up with that scenario....
Click to expand...

Thankfully, that kind of track (along or near the coast) would obviously keep a lid on the strength due to a combo of land interaction and slow movement resulting in cooling of the SSTs underneath it such as was the case with Dorian. However, the main problem though would be the enormous amounts of rainfall. The heavy rainfall aspect could easily turn out to be the biggest headache from this very slow mover, especially if it as a flood proned place like CHS.
 
Exactly Canadian rides inland all the way up Florida Coast at 12z, floods eastern SC GA NC. Gets drizzle right up to the neighbors house across the street from Shettleys house and stops.

Speaking of droughts where's Shettley been. This has turned into prime time for him
 
Welp CMC would be terrible, sh*t would be flowing into the ocean again with that look like Matthew and Florence
 
Storm total from CMC
qpf_acc.us_se.png
 
Last edited:
The look on the last frame of the ICON is nuts. That is probably another crushing hit on DC the next few frames.
 

Attachments

  • 9EA37071-1FDD-49B4-9934-1549945F0C29.jpeg
    9EA37071-1FDD-49B4-9934-1549945F0C29.jpeg
    350.8 KB · Views: 39
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top