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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

GeorgiaGirl

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They just declared an invest on the one north of Hispaniola. Post away...



Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough near the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters has increased since yesterday. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and the Gulf of Mexico late this week and this weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
 

Henry2326

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You can see that the unreliable ICON is strongly giving way to the consensus on this 18Z run with the main low pressure well out into the Gulf finally. Now the Gulf consensus is stronger.
I'm kinda confused. It looks like it splits off and part goes to the gulf and part to the east coast...
 

NCSNOW

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Thats worse angle possible for NO. Thankfully its weak sauce and just as likely to land in panama, mobile as rain producing TS at best, way it looks now. A lot of us west of the Georgia,Carolina Coastal Plain need some rain.
 

GaWx

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I'm kinda confused. It looks like it splits off and part goes to the gulf and part to the east coast...
It does and that makes forecasting the evolution of this tricky with possibly some surprises to come. BUT, for the first ICON run in quite a few, the stronger low of the two is in the Gulf.

That being said, the 18Z Euro suite interestingly enough is still keeping the just E of FL genesis option open as a possibility. For one thing, the operational has genesis near Nassau at hour 72 moving NW toward SE FL. Also, the 18Z EPS has 8 full fledged TCs. Of those 8, 5 do have genesis in the GOM. These hit anywhere from TX to the FL panhandle. But interestingly, there still are 3 in the other camp well east with genesis just E of FL. Actually, the strongest of all 51 members (a H) recurved off the SE coast and never makes landfall. The other 2 skirt up the FL coast into E GA. So, the prior ICON runs’ scenario of E of FL genesis for the MAIN low can’t be eliminated yet due to uncertainties dealing with the split of the energy.
 

GaWx

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0Z Euro is E of the GFS/CMC and the 12Z Euro. It only barely reaches the Gulf. Let’s see what the ensembles show.

Edit: There's one very bizarre track of 95L from one of the 0Z Euro ens members: it first hits Georgetown, SC, as a TS. Then it goes up the coast into NC and then loops back over the ocean before coming into Myrtle Beach, SC area as a H a 4 days later!
 
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GaWx

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If Weathernerds had had animation for the 6Z EPS, one would see that a slow trend of the Euro suite to the right/north is continuing. Most of the strongest members are actually moving NNW right up the FL peninsula. Let’s see on future runs if this trend continues.

Based on model trends to the right/north (see last several Euro/EPS, ICON back to right with main low after 18Z had finally put main low in Gulf, and even the often left biased 0Z UKMET has shifted to up FL as was posted by Kylo), the main sfc low may end up never making it to the Gulf.
 

GeorgiaGirl

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1568217092809.png

The 12z GFS trended to the right and has a tropical depression here (edit: at least so far).

Btw: it should be obvious what I'm trying to do lol...I started this as I'm just trying to wish some rain into areas that need it, although I know it's "possible" there could be a mild surprise. I do know that there's more than one area that "needs it" though.
 

GaWx

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UK is SAV to CLT

This is complex. Indeed, after it currently has 95L a TD that then weakens, the 12Z UKMET then redevelops both sides of the energy split (I don't know if I've ever seen this on the UKMET progs) but with the stronger side moving NNW near the FL E coast and then moving further NNW/N just inland in the SE US coast and then up moves NNE into the SE:

1. It has it now as a TD that quickly weakens:
95L TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 73.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2019 0 20.1N 73.9W 1013 19
0000UTC 12.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

2. Redevelopment #1: Stronger TC almost a H:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 26.7N 79.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 72 26.7N 79.0W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.09.2019 84 27.8N 79.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 15.09.2019 96 29.2N 80.9W 1002 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 30.8N 81.3W 992 60
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 32.4N 81.5W 982 55
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 33.8N 81.4W 989 32
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 34.9N 80.6W 1000 28

3. Redevelopment #2: It later develops a TD in the GOM:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.4N 91.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 27.4N 91.9W 1008 27
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 28.4N 93.8W 1007 26
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 28.9N 94.0W 1006 28
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 30.2N 94.2W 1007 30
 
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Henry2326

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This is complex. Indeed, after it currently has 95L a TD that then weakens, the 12Z UKMET then redevelops both sides of the energy split (I don't know if I've ever seen this on the UKMET progs) but with the stronger side moving NNW near the FL E coast and then moving further NNW/N just inland in the SE US coast and then up moves NNE into the SE:

1. It has it now as a TD that quickly weakens:
95L TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 73.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2019 0 20.1N 73.9W 1013 19
0000UTC 12.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

2. Redevelopment #1: Stronger TC almost a H:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 26.7N 79.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 72 26.7N 79.0W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.09.2019 84 27.8N 79.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 15.09.2019 96 29.2N 80.9W 1002 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 30.8N 81.3W 992 60
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 32.4N 81.5W 982 55
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 33.8N 81.4W 989 32
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 34.9N 80.6W 1000 28

3. Redevelopment #2: It later develops a TD in the GOM:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.4N 91.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 27.4N 91.9W 1008 27
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 28.4N 93.8W 1007 26
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 28.9N 94.0W 1006 28
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 30.2N 94.2W 1007 30
Icon did something similar yesterday.
 
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