B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Just did this a couple of weeks ago....
Deja vu all over again.
Just did this a couple of weeks ago....
Icon did a similar run, more like Jax.UK is SAV to CLT
UK is SAV to CLT
Icon did something similar yesterday.This is complex. Indeed, after it currently has 95L a TD that then weakens, the 12Z UKMET then redevelops both sides of the energy split (I don't know if I've ever seen this on the UKMET progs) but with the stronger side moving NNW near the FL E coast and then moving further NNW/N just inland in the SE US coast and then up moves NNE into the SE:
1. It has it now as a TD that quickly weakens:
95L TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 73.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2019 0 20.1N 73.9W 1013 19
0000UTC 12.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING
2. Redevelopment #1: Stronger TC almost a H:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 26.7N 79.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 72 26.7N 79.0W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.09.2019 84 27.8N 79.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 15.09.2019 96 29.2N 80.9W 1002 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 30.8N 81.3W 992 60
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 32.4N 81.5W 982 55
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 33.8N 81.4W 989 32
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 34.9N 80.6W 1000 28
3. Redevelopment #2: It later develops a TD in the GOM:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.4N 91.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 27.4N 91.9W 1008 27
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 28.4N 93.8W 1007 26
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 28.9N 94.0W 1006 28
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 30.2N 94.2W 1007 30
Recon are going to investigate Invest 95L starting tomorrow.469
NOUS42 KNHC 111732
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 11 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-106
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR CENTRAL BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 12/2000Z A. 13/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 12/1730Z C. 13/0245Z
D. 24.0N 77.0W D. 24.5N 78.5W
E. 12/1945Z TO 13/0000Z E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 13/0900Z
D. 24.7N 79.5W
E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
Euro going up East side....funny that. This might become complicated in a much bigger way....This is complex. Indeed, after it currently has 95L a TD that then weakens, the 12Z UKMET then redevelops both sides of the energy split (I don't know if I've ever seen this on the UKMET progs) but with the stronger side moving NNW near the FL E coast and then moving further NNW/N just inland in the SE US coast and then up moves NNE into the SE:
1. It has it now as a TD that quickly weakens:
95L TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 73.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2019 0 20.1N 73.9W 1013 19
0000UTC 12.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING
2. Redevelopment #1: Stronger TC almost a H:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 26.7N 79.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 72 26.7N 79.0W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.09.2019 84 27.8N 79.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 15.09.2019 96 29.2N 80.9W 1002 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 30.8N 81.3W 992 60
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 32.4N 81.5W 982 55
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 33.8N 81.4W 989 32
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 34.9N 80.6W 1000 28
3. Redevelopment #2: It later develops a TD in the GOM:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.4N 91.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 27.4N 91.9W 1008 27
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 28.4N 93.8W 1007 26
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 28.9N 94.0W 1006 28
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 30.2N 94.2W 1007 30
Lol.......just when you think one has lost its mojo...12Z Euro right up the FL peninsula through 120. No Gulf this run. Right trend continues.
Is the ICON going to end up scoring a win? Keep in mind that it was very stubborn for several days in having the main low just E of FL rather than moving into the Gulf like most other models. All of those runs are still at Tidbits. Now the consensus is heading in the ICON's direction.