• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

GeorgiaGirl

Member
Joined
Jan 5, 2017
Messages
7,206
Reaction score
5,367
Location
Augusta, GA
They just declared an invest on the one north of Hispaniola. Post away...



Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough near the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters has increased since yesterday. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and the Gulf of Mexico late this week and this weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
 
Wouldn’t rule out a very strong system during peak hurricane season and in the gulf. Those can be sneaky last minute...aka Katrina.
 
You can see that the unreliable ICON is strongly giving way to the consensus on this 18Z run with the main low pressure well out into the Gulf finally. Now the Gulf consensus is stronger.
I'm kinda confused. It looks like it splits off and part goes to the gulf and part to the east coast...
 
Thats worse angle possible for NO. Thankfully its weak sauce and just as likely to land in panama, mobile as rain producing TS at best, way it looks now. A lot of us west of the Georgia,Carolina Coastal Plain need some rain.
 
I'm kinda confused. It looks like it splits off and part goes to the gulf and part to the east coast...

It does and that makes forecasting the evolution of this tricky with possibly some surprises to come. BUT, for the first ICON run in quite a few, the stronger low of the two is in the Gulf.

That being said, the 18Z Euro suite interestingly enough is still keeping the just E of FL genesis option open as a possibility. For one thing, the operational has genesis near Nassau at hour 72 moving NW toward SE FL. Also, the 18Z EPS has 8 full fledged TCs. Of those 8, 5 do have genesis in the GOM. These hit anywhere from TX to the FL panhandle. But interestingly, there still are 3 in the other camp well east with genesis just E of FL. Actually, the strongest of all 51 members (a H) recurved off the SE coast and never makes landfall. The other 2 skirt up the FL coast into E GA. So, the prior ICON runs’ scenario of E of FL genesis for the MAIN low can’t be eliminated yet due to uncertainties dealing with the split of the energy.
 
0Z Euro is E of the GFS/CMC and the 12Z Euro. It only barely reaches the Gulf. Let’s see what the ensembles show.

Edit: There's one very bizarre track of 95L from one of the 0Z Euro ens members: it first hits Georgetown, SC, as a TS. Then it goes up the coast into NC and then loops back over the ocean before coming into Myrtle Beach, SC area as a H a 4 days later!
 
Last edited:
Back
Top