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Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

ForsythSnow said:
This better come back west or things are going to get really bad in terms of dryness. We can't go 3 or 4 weeks dry.
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Also seems to me that the best case for the US would be a sudden hit to Florida or crossing into the Gulf because otherwise we would see what the Euro is showing, which is another hurricane Sandy and the other storm following almost too closely too.
 
well I don't put to much stock into the ICON, but maybe it was the trend setter for this one? EURO with its solution surprised me a little with a wild swing to the east. maybe this just stays off shore and then the one after goes OTS as well. Its VERY possible.
 
deltadog03 said:
well I don't put to much stock into the ICON, but maybe it was the trend setter for this one? EURO with its solution surprised me a little with a wild swing to the east. maybe this just stays off shore and then the one after goes OTS as well. Its VERY possible.
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I watched Icon with Dorian. It took a long time for it to catch up to GFS. But Euro did too. Wondering if some specific variable makes GFS better in some scenarios than others...and the same for each model.
 
00z CMC east coast....also does a stutter like it hits a wall and takes a right turn. Saw something similar on ICON

gem_mslp_uv850_seus_17.png
 
1. Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over
the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better
organized while surface pressures are falling in the area.
Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a
tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves
toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward
the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend
continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be
initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall
and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday,
especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by
Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
 
KyloG said:
6z Euro. with a ridge to it's due west you would think this would stay over the water.

View attachment 23457
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As long as the WAR ridge isn't building and that trough isn't lifting.

Going back and looking at it, it looks as if the escape route ots should be wide open as the WAR retreats thinks to that trough
 
metwannabe said:
As long as the WAR ridge isn't building and that trough isn't lifting.

Going back and looking at it, it looks as if the escape route ots should be wide open as the WAR retreats thinks to that trough
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Just looked at the 0z Euro...no wonder twitter is filled with excitement from the NE folks.
 
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